Regional Bankers Declare Economy in Recession

Creighton University survey shows over 50% of bankers see downturn, with farm exports down sharply in South Dakota.

Apr. 16, 2026 at 6:07pm

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A vibrant abstract illustration composed of intersecting triangles and rectangles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conceptually representing the economic challenges facing the Midwest region.Creighton University's survey of regional bankers signals a widening economic downturn in the Midwest.Omaha Today

A new survey from Creighton University found that more than half of bankers in the region believe the economy is in a recession, with the impact of the Iran war spilling over to affect the farm economy through higher fuel and fertilizer prices. South Dakota's economic reading improved slightly from the previous month but remained in negative territory, and the state's farm exports plunged over 60% in the first two months of 2026 compared to the prior year.

Why it matters

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index is a closely watched economic indicator for the Midwest region, providing insights into the health of rural communities and the agricultural sector. A recession declaration from a majority of bankers signals broader economic challenges that could impact jobs, consumer spending, and government tax revenues across the region.

The details

The monthly survey from Creighton University found that 54% of bankers in the region believe the economy is in a recession. Economist Dr. Ernie Goss said the impact of the ongoing Iran conflict has spilled over to affect the farm economy, with higher fuel and fertilizer prices being a particular burden. While South Dakota's economic reading improved slightly from the previous month, it remained in negative territory. The state also saw its farm exports plummet by more than 60% in the first two months of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier.

  • The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index survey was conducted in April 2026.
  • South Dakota's economic reading and farm export data covers the first two months of 2026.

The players

Creighton University

A private Jesuit university located in Omaha, Nebraska, that conducts the monthly Rural Mainstreet Index survey to gauge economic conditions in the Midwest region.

Dr. Ernie Goss

An economist at Creighton University who oversees the Rural Mainstreet Index and provided analysis on the latest survey results.

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What they’re saying

“The impact of the Iran war has spilled over to affect the farm economy, with the heaviest impact affecting fuel and fertilizer prices.”

— Dr. Ernie Goss, Economist, Creighton University

The takeaway

The Creighton University survey results underscore the economic challenges facing rural communities in the Midwest, with the fallout from geopolitical conflicts and rising input costs weighing heavily on the agricultural sector. These trends could have ripple effects across the region's economy in the months ahead.