Prediction Market Expects Homeland Security Funding to Be Restored by March 2026

Partial government shutdown continues as White House and Democrats fail to reach a deal on DHS funding

Published on Feb. 20, 2026

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The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) funding has been paused as the Trump administration failed to reach a deal with Senate Democrats, causing a partial government shutdown. According to data from the prediction market platform Kalshi, bettors expect DHS funding to be restored before March 20, 2026, with a 74% probability.

Why it matters

The ongoing partial government shutdown over DHS funding highlights the continued political gridlock in Washington, with the White House and Democrats at odds over immigration policy and enforcement. The prediction market data provides insight into how the public views the likelihood and timing of a resolution to the funding impasse.

The details

Democrats have demanded several changes to DHS after federal immigration agents killed Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, while the White House has refused to agree to their demands. With no deal in sight, Congress is on recess until February 23. Over $1.6 million has been bet on the Kalshi contract "When will DHS be funded again?", with the option "Before Mar 20, 2026" having a 74% probability. The "Before Mar 10, 2026" option has a 53% probability, while "Before Mar 1, 2026" has the lowest probability at 17%.

  • The partial government shutdown began in February 2026.
  • Congress is on recess until February 23, 2026.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president of the United States who is at odds with Democrats over DHS funding.

Chuck Schumer

The Senate Minority Leader who is calling for DHS to follow the rules followed by other law enforcement agencies.

Tom Homan

The White House Border Czar who said the Trump administration was unwilling to agree to the demands laid out by the Democrats.

Alex Pretti

A Minneapolis resident who was killed by federal immigration agents, leading to demands for changes to DHS.

Kalshi

A federally authorized betting platform where over $1.6 million has been bet on the contract "When will DHS be funded again?".

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.