Prediction Market Bets on Length of Latest Partial Government Shutdown

Bettors see shutdown lasting at least 20 days, with 50% chance of lasting 25 days or more

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

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The Department of Homeland Security has entered a partial government shutdown after Senate Democrats blocked funding bills, prompting the closure. The prediction market is betting on how long this latest shutdown will last, with the "At least 20 days" option leading at a 69% probability, followed by "At least 25 days" at 50% and "At least 30 days" at 41%.

Why it matters

Government shutdowns can have significant economic impacts, with the previous record-breaking 43-day shutdown in 2018-2019 causing an estimated $7-$14 billion loss in real GDP. This latest shutdown is limited to the DHS but is expected to cause travel delays as TSA officers work without pay.

The details

The baseline funding for DHS expired on Saturday after lawmakers failed to reach a deal prior to a week-long recess. Democrats demanded several changes to DHS after a controversial incident, but the White House's proposal was reportedly rejected. The prediction market has seen over $735,000 bet on the contract 'How long will the government shutdown last?'

  • The DHS funding expired on Saturday, February 18, 2026.
  • The previous partial government shutdown lasted 43 days, ending in January 2019.

The players

Donald Trump

The former President of the United States who signed a $1.2 trillion funding package just days before the latest shutdown.

Senate Democrats

The group of Democratic Senators who blocked the funding bills, leading to the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.

Alex Pretti

An individual killed by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, which prompted demands for changes at DHS from Democrats.

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What’s next

The judge overseeing the case will decide on Tuesday whether to allow the DHS to reopen or if the shutdown will continue.

The takeaway

This latest partial government shutdown highlights the ongoing political tensions and the potential economic impacts of such disruptions, underscoring the importance of bipartisan cooperation to avoid prolonged closures that can harm the country.