Democratic Congresswoman Slams Prediction Markets: 99.96% Of Traders Lose

Ansari criticized prediction markets as casinos that benefit the rich and powerful at the expense of everyday users.

Apr. 17, 2026 at 5:23pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A dynamic, abstract painting featuring overlapping, geometric waves of blue, grey, and red hues, conceptually representing the chaotic and divisive nature of political debates around financial regulation and prediction markets.As political tensions escalate over the role of prediction markets, a fractured, avant-garde painting captures the turbulent debate over financial regulation and its impact on everyday investors.Lansing Today

Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari, the first Iranian American Democrat in Congress, filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and then turned her attention to criticizing prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Ansari claimed that 99.96% of prediction market users lose everything while the top 0.04% walk away with billions, and she is promoting the BETS OFF Act to ban wagers on war, terrorism, assassination, and government actions.

Why it matters

Ansari's criticism of prediction markets highlights growing concerns about the role of these platforms, which some view as benefiting the wealthy and powerful at the expense of everyday investors. The BETS OFF Act is part of a broader debate over the regulation of financial instruments and the potential risks they pose to the public.

The details

The 99.96% figure cited by Ansari comes from an on-chain analysis published in late December by blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis. This analysis found that less than 0.04% of Polymarket addresses captured over 70% of realized profits, collectively $3.7 billion. However, the analysis also showed that around 30% of Polymarket's 1.7 million addresses posted realized profits, which is well above the 3% to 5% profitable bettor rate in traditional sports betting. The methodology also counted pseudonymous wallet addresses rather than verified users, and one trader can run multiple wallets.

  • On April 16, 2026, Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
  • On April 17, 2026, Ansari posted on X criticizing prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

The players

Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari

The first Iranian American Democrat in Congress, who filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and is promoting the BETS OFF Act to ban wagers on war, terrorism, assassination, and government actions.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

The U.S. Defense Secretary who was the subject of Ansari's impeachment articles.

Polymarket

A prediction market platform that was criticized by Ansari for benefiting the rich and powerful.

Kalshi

A prediction market platform that was also criticized by Ansari for benefiting the rich and powerful.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“Prediction markets are casinos where the rich and powerful are the house and everyone else is the chips. 99.96% of users lose everything while the top 0.04% walk away with billions.”

— Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari, U.S. Representative

What’s next

The BETS OFF Act co-sponsored by Ansari alongside Sen. Chris Murphy, Rep. Greg Casar, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib would need to go through the legislative process before potentially becoming law. However, Sen. Murphy has acknowledged the odds of the bill passing are "slim to none" given the involvement of Donald Trump Jr. as a Polymarket investor and paid Kalshi adviser.

The takeaway

Ansari's criticism of prediction markets highlights the ongoing debate over the role and regulation of these platforms, which some view as benefiting the wealthy and powerful at the expense of everyday investors. The BETS OFF Act is part of a broader effort to address the perceived risks and inequities of prediction markets, though its chances of passing appear low.