Aston Martin's nightmare preseason leaves F1 newcomer Cadillac ahead in 2026 predictions

Bahrain testing data and paddock vibes suggest Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren will lead the field, with Red Bull and Haas rounding out the top five.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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With six days of testing in Bahrain now complete, ESPN has analyzed the data and spoken to sources up and down the pit lane to predict the running order for the 2026 Formula 1 season. Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren appear to be the frontrunners, while Aston Martin's disastrous preseason has left the team trailing even newcomer Cadillac.

Why it matters

The 2026 season will see a major shift in the F1 pecking order as new engine regulations come into play. Understanding the early competitive landscape is crucial for fans and teams alike as they prepare for the upcoming campaign.

The details

Mercedes set the second-fastest time in Bahrain testing, with Kimi Antonelli just 0.811 seconds off Charles Leclerc's benchmark in the Ferrari. The data suggests Mercedes may have been holding back, with its drivers consistently slower on the straights but matching Ferrari's pace on longer runs. Ferrari, meanwhile, topped the timesheets and impressed with its race pace, while McLaren appears to have the third-fastest car on single-lap speed and long-run performance. Red Bull and Haas look to be the next best of the rest, with Alpine, Audi and the new Racing Bulls team battling for the midfield positions. At the back, Aston Martin endured a nightmare preseason, completing the fewest laps and posting the slowest time, while Cadillac - the other new team on the grid - surprisingly outpaced the struggling British outfit.

  • Leclerc set the fastest time of the Bahrain test on the final day.
  • Antonelli's best lap for Mercedes was on the second day of testing.
  • Piastri completed a race simulation for McLaren on Thursday afternoon.
  • Verstappen ran a race simulation for Red Bull on Thursday.
  • Bearman and Lindblad ran race simulations for Haas and Racing Bulls on Friday.

The players

Kimi Antonelli

A Mercedes driver who set the team's fastest time in Bahrain testing.

Charles Leclerc

The Ferrari driver who set the fastest overall time in Bahrain testing.

Lando Norris

The McLaren driver who set the third-fastest time in Bahrain testing.

Max Verstappen

The Red Bull driver who completed a race simulation during testing.

Oliver Bearman

The Haas driver who completed a race simulation during testing.

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What they’re saying

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What’s next

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The takeaway

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