Maple Leafs' Draft Lottery Odds Revealed, Bruins' Pick Chance Clarified

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have finally learned their NHL Draft lottery odds after a disappointing late-season slide. Due to a previous trade, the Leafs' first-round pick for 2026 is protected if it lands in the top 5, but otherwise will convey to the Boston Bruins. Toronto's 5th-best lottery odds give them an 8.5% chance of picking 1st overall, an 8.6% chance of 2nd, and a 24.5% chance of picking 5th, leaving a 56.2% probability that the pick will end up with the Bruins.

Why it matters

The Maple Leafs have been hoping to retain their 2026 first-round pick, as it's considered a strong draft class. Losing the pick to the Bruins would be a significant setback, especially after Toronto's disappointing season. This outcome highlights the importance of protecting high draft picks in trades and the impact that late-season results can have on a team's future.

The details

The Maple Leafs' first-round pick for 2026 was part of a trade with the Boston Bruins during the 2024-25 season, when Toronto acquired defenseman Brandon Carlo. The pick was protected, meaning the Leafs would keep it if it landed in the top 5 of the draft, but would convey it to the Bruins if it fell outside the top 5. Toronto's late-season struggles, including losing 5 of their last 6 games in regulation, have put them in the 5th-best lottery odds, giving them an 8.5% chance of picking 1st, an 8.6% chance of 2nd, and a 24.5% chance of picking 5th. This leaves a 56.2% probability that the pick will end up with the Bruins.

• The Maple Leafs traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Bruins during the 2024-25 season.
• Toronto lost 5 of their last 6 games in regulation to finish the 2025-26 season.

What’s next

The NHL Draft Lottery will determine the final order of the 2026 NHL Draft, including whether the Maple Leafs' first-round pick will be conveyed to the Bruins.