Colgate Holds Analytical Edge Over Boston University in Patriot League Matchup

Raiders' defensive efficiency and ball security should give them the advantage on the road against the Terriers

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The Colgate Raiders head to Case Gym on Monday night as slight favorites against Boston University, and the analytical numbers suggest this is a significant mismatch. While Boston University boasts elite three-point shooting, their #349 national ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency makes them a risky point spread bet against a disciplined Colgate offense that takes care of the ball and defends well.

Why it matters

This Patriot League matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions, with Colgate firmly in the hunt for a conference title and Boston University struggling to stay above .500. The efficiency gap between the two squads is substantial, and it could lead to an important road win for the Raiders as they look to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume.

The details

Colgate sits at #200 in adjusted net rating with a minus-2.2 mark, while BU checks in at #273 with a minus-9.1. That's a 6.9-point gap in pure efficiency. The Raiders are #221 defensively versus the Terriers at #349—a 128-spot chasm. Boston University can score, but they can't stop anyone, and that's a recipe for disaster against a Colgate squad that takes care of the ball and defends the three-point line well.

  • The game will take place on February 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
  • Colgate defeated Boston University 80-79 in their previous matchup on January 24, 2026.

The players

Jalen Cox

Colgate's starting point guard, averaging 15.0 points and 5.4 assists per game.

Andrew Alekseyenko

Colgate's starting center, contributing 13.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

Michael McNair

Boston University's leading scorer, averaging 16.3 points per game.

Ben Defty

Boston University's starting forward, averaging 11.9 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The market's giving Colgate minimal respect here, and I understand the hesitation. But the efficiency tells us that BU's defensive rating of 119.8 ranks #349 nationally, and that's a huge mismatch against Colgate's disciplined offense.”

— Bryan Bash, Analyst (predictem.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.