Cardi B's Super Bowl Halftime Cameo Sparks Prediction Market Dispute

Traders file complaints over how Cardi B's appearance was handled on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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Cardi B made a brief cameo appearance during Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show, but it was unclear whether she was actually singing. This led to disputes on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket over whether her appearance constituted a "performance" that would settle related event contracts. At least one trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how Kalshi resolved its Cardi B contract, while Polymarket's contract is still awaiting a final decision.

Why it matters

Prediction markets allow traders to wager on the outcomes of future events, and the resolution of these contracts can have significant financial implications. The Cardi B halftime show dispute highlights the challenges these platforms face in defining and adjudicating ambiguous events, which can lead to user complaints and regulatory scrutiny.

The details

Kalshi cited "ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B's attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying 'performance'" in settling its "Who will perform at the Big Game?" contract at $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. A trader who held a Yes position has filed a complaint with the CFTC alleging Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act. Polymarket's similar contract is still awaiting a final resolution, with the Yes position being disputed.

  • Cardi B joined the Super Bowl halftime show on February 11, 2026.
  • The CFTC complaint was first reported on February 15, 2026.
  • Polymarket is expected to announce a final decision on its contract on February 16, 2026.

The players

Cardi B

A Grammy-winning rapper who made a brief cameo appearance during the Super Bowl halftime show.

Kalshi

A prediction market platform that offered a contract on "Who will perform at the Big Game?" and resolved it in favor of the No position due to ambiguity over Cardi B's appearance.

Polymarket

A prediction market platform that also offered a contract on the Super Bowl halftime show performers, with the Yes position being disputed.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

The U.S. government agency that regulates commodity futures and options markets, including prediction markets.

Luana Lopes Lara

The co-founder of Kalshi, who acknowledged the platform experienced deposit issues due to a spike in traffic on Super Bowl Sunday.

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What they’re saying

“Due to 'ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B's attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying 'performance,'' Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders.”

— Kalshi (nbcnews.com)

“The traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.”

— Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi co-founder (X)

“I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time. This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer.”

— Vlad Tenev, CEO, Robinhood Markets (nbcnews.com)

What’s next

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to review the complaint filed by the Kalshi trader, and Polymarket is set to announce a final decision on its contract on February 16, 2026.

The takeaway

The Cardi B Super Bowl halftime show dispute highlights the challenges prediction markets face in defining and adjudicating ambiguous events, which can lead to user complaints and regulatory scrutiny. As prediction markets continue to grow in popularity, platforms will need to develop more robust rules and processes to ensure fair and transparent resolution of their contracts.