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Cardi B's Super Bowl Halftime Cameo Sparks Prediction Market Dispute
Traders file complaints over how Kalshi and Polymarket handled the rapper's appearance during Bad Bunny's performance.
Published on Feb. 11, 2026
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Cardi B's brief appearance during Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show led to disputes on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket over whether her cameo constituted a qualifying "performance." At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the market was settled, while Polymarket's contract resolution is still pending a final decision.
Why it matters
Prediction markets provide a platform for traders to wager on the outcomes of future events, but the ambiguity around Cardi B's role in the halftime show highlights the challenges these markets face in clearly defining and resolving contracts. The disputes underscore the need for clear rules and transparency when it comes to settling prediction market outcomes.
The details
On Kalshi, the market for "Who will perform at the Big Game?" had over $47.3 million in wagers. Kalshi cited ambiguity over whether Cardi B's appearance constituted a "performance" and settled the market at the last price before trading was paused - $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. On Polymarket, the contract was resolved as Cardi B having performed, but the yes was disputed, with a final decision expected on Wednesday.
- The Super Bowl halftime show took place on February 11, 2026.
The players
Cardi B
A Grammy-winning rapper who made a cameo appearance during Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show performance.
Kalshi
A prediction market platform where traders filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the market was settled following Cardi B's halftime show appearance.
Polymarket
A prediction market platform that also had a contract related to Cardi B's Super Bowl halftime show appearance, which is still pending a final resolution.
What’s next
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to review the complaint filed by the Kalshi trader, and Polymarket is set to announce a final decision on its Cardi B contract resolution on Wednesday.
The takeaway
The disputes over how prediction markets handled Cardi B's Super Bowl halftime show appearance highlight the need for clear, transparent rules and processes when it comes to settling outcomes on these platforms. As prediction markets continue to grow in popularity, ensuring fair and consistent resolutions will be crucial to maintaining trader confidence.
