Forecasters Predict Potential El Niño Development Later This Year

Weakening La Niña conditions could lead to a moderate to strong El Niño event by late 2026.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 8:05am

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A sweeping, majestic landscape painting in muted tones, with a massive, swirling storm system dominating the frame and dwarfing any physical structures or objects, conveying the overwhelming scale and power of extreme weather conditions.A dramatic, atmospheric landscape painting captures the awe-inspiring power of a brewing El Niño event, underscoring the profound influence of global climate patterns.Coeur d'Alene Today

Meteorologists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean for signs of a transition from the current weak La Niña conditions to a potential El Niño event later this year. This shift could have significant implications for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with forecasts indicating a slightly lower-than-average number of named storms if a moderate to strong El Niño develops.

Why it matters

El Niño and La Niña events can have far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, affecting everything from temperature and precipitation to the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. Understanding the current state of these climate phenomena is crucial for making accurate seasonal forecasts and preparing communities for potential weather-related challenges.

The details

Meteorologists use a combination of ocean temperature measurements, trade wind patterns, and atmospheric pressure data to monitor the development of El Niño and La Niña events. The primary indicator is the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. When these temperatures rise at least 1°F above average for several consecutive months, an El Niño is declared. If the anomalies exceed 2.7°F, the event is classified as strong.

  • Earlier this year, a weak La Niña event was observed in the south-central Pacific Ocean.
  • Observations now indicate that La Niña is rapidly weakening and heading toward 'neutral' conditions.
  • Long-range forecast models and sea surface temperature forecasters are pointing to the development of a new El Niño as early as this summer, potentially becoming very strong by late 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see approximately 13 named storms, slightly lower than the average of slightly more than 14.

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array

A network of ocean buoys that deliver real-time data on ocean temperatures, winds, and sea level across the Pacific, helping scientists monitor the development of El Niño and La Niña events.

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What they’re saying

“If there is a moderate to strong El Nino later this year, there is a better chance that the 2026 tropical storm and hurricane season will be 'slightly lower-than-average' in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters.”

— Randy Mann, Meteorologist

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to closely monitor the Pacific Ocean for further developments in the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions. If a moderate to strong El Niño event does materialize, forecasters will provide more detailed outlooks for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in the coming weeks.

The takeaway

The potential shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions later this year could have significant implications for global weather patterns, including a slightly lower-than-average number of Atlantic hurricanes. Understanding these climate phenomena is crucial for making accurate seasonal forecasts and preparing communities for potential weather-related challenges.