Carbon Credit Prices Plummet Amid Economic Uncertainty

No-till farmers see carbon credit market shrink as companies cut emissions during recession.

Apr. 18, 2026 at 5:40am

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A minimalist illustration featuring overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of brown, grey, and green, conceptually representing the volatility and decline of the carbon credit market.The carbon credit market's struggle with low demand and policy uncertainty has left no-till farmers facing an uncertain future for their sustainability-focused revenue streams.Des Moines Today

No-till farmers enrolled in carbon credit programs that reward them for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are finding the market for their credits has shrunk amid the recession and uncertainty about climate legislation being crafted by Congress. Carbon credit prices have fallen from $7 per metric ton in 2008 to just 25 cents per metric ton on the Chicago Climate Exchange, as some companies that had purchased credits have shuttered due to the harsh economy.

Why it matters

The collapse in carbon credit prices is a significant blow to no-till farmers who had been counting on that revenue stream to offset the costs of adopting more sustainable farming practices. It also reflects the broader economic and political uncertainty around climate change legislation and the future of carbon markets.

The details

According to Dale Enerson, director of the National Farmers Union carbon credit program, some companies that had previously purchased carbon credits have closed factories and are now emitting less, reducing their need for offsets. AgraGate, a major aggregator of carbon credits from no-till farmers, has suspended new enrollments in its program until there is more clarity around climate policy and market conditions.

  • As of mid-August 2026, carbon credit prices had fallen to 25 cents per metric ton on the Chicago Climate Exchange.
  • In the summer of 2008, carbon credits were trading in the $7 per metric ton range.

The players

Dale Enerson

Director of the National Farmers Union carbon credit program.

Dave Sengpiel

CEO of AgraGate, a major aggregator of carbon credits from no-till farmers.

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What they’re saying

“Some of their factories have closed, so they are emitting less or not at all. So, there is no need for an offset.”

— Dale Enerson, Director, National Farmers Union

“If and until the Senate passes a cap-and-trade bill, political uncertainty in the carbon credit market is expected to keep prices low. If market conditions improve and the outlook stabilizes, we will reconsider new aggregation activities at that time.”

— Dave Sengpiel, CEO, AgraGate

What’s next

If Congress passes climate legislation that includes a cap-and-trade system, it could help stabilize the carbon credit market and lead to higher prices, potentially reviving interest from no-till farmers and credit aggregators like AgraGate.

The takeaway

The collapse in carbon credit prices is a major setback for no-till farmers who were counting on that revenue to support their sustainable farming practices. It highlights the broader economic and political uncertainty around climate policy and the future of carbon markets, which will need to be resolved for these programs to provide reliable income for environmentally-conscious farmers.