Tax Refunds Up, But Falling Short of Trump's $1,000 Promise

The tax law included new deductions, but average refunds have only increased by $350 so far.

Mar. 21, 2026 at 12:07pm

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Americans' tax refunds are averaging about $350 higher than this time last year, but are well below the extra $1,000 that President Donald Trump promised after passage of his signature economic legislation. The tax law included new deductions, but refunds have not reached the level forecast by the White House.

Why it matters

Republicans have pinned their economic pitch to voters on boosted tax refunds following passage of last year's sweeping tax law, as they try to beat the odds to maintain full control of Congress in November's midterm elections. Falling short of the promised $1,000 increase to average tax refunds could pose a political risk to Republicans.

The details

Refunds averaged $3,623 through March 13, 11% higher than the same point last year, according to IRS data. The tax law included new deductions for tips, overtime, older Americans and car loan interest, and a higher maximum state and local tax deduction. However, the White House forecast Trump's tax law would increase average refunds by '$1,000 or more this year,' a claim repeated by the president and administration officials.

  • Through March 13, average refunds were $3,623, 11% higher than the same point last year.
  • As of March 13, nearly half of anticipated returns already had been filed.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States who signed the tax law and promised $1,000 or more in increased average tax refunds.

Scott Bessent

The Treasury Secretary who repeated the claim of $1,000 or more in increased average tax refunds.

Karoline Leavitt

The White House Press Secretary who repeated the claim of $1,000 or more in increased average tax refunds.

Kyle Pomerleau

A senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute who said a $1,000 average increase in refunds is "a little too optimistic" and more moderate estimates of $500 to $750 seem more likely.

Andrew Lautz

The director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center who said the change in average refund could move in either direction.

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What they’re saying

“Think of that: $1,000 compared to last year, $1,000 just in what you're going to save with some of the tax cuts. It's amazing.”

— Donald Trump

“I think a $1,000 average is a little too optimistic. More moderate estimates of a $500 to $750 increase average refunds over last year seem more likely.”

— Kyle Pomerleau, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

“So far, a lot of the macro-metrics of this filing season suggests that things are normal, even though we know there's all this new stuff. People are filing at regular intervals. Refunds are larger, as we expected. But there's still a lot of uncertainty about where this goes in the final four weeks.”

— Andrew Lautz, Director of Tax Policy, Bipartisan Policy Center

What’s next

The IRS will continue to release weekly data on tax refunds as the filing season progresses, providing more insight into whether refunds will reach the $1,000 level promised by the Trump administration.

The takeaway

While tax refunds are up from last year, they have not yet reached the $1,000 increase promised by the Trump administration. This could pose a political risk for Republicans as they fight to maintain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.