Summer Travel Stable Despite Iran War Driving Up Costs

Travelers unlikely to see major disruptions or price hikes, but prolonged oil disruptions could affect flights and prices later in the year.

Apr. 12, 2026 at 9:07am

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A highly stylized, geometric illustration in the Art Deco style, featuring sweeping gradients of blues and grays, towering architectural forms, and sleek, streamlined shapes, capturing the grand scale and romance of travel without any literal depictions.As the Iran war drives up fuel costs, the summer travel season remains stable - for now.Decatur Today

While the war in Iran is driving up oil prices, major U.S. airlines have not made significant schedule cuts or price changes for summer travel so far. However, experts warn that prolonged disruptions to global oil shipping could lead to larger travel disruptions beyond the summer if the conflict escalates.

Why it matters

The ongoing uncertainty around the Iran war and its impact on oil prices is causing some travelers to reconsider or cancel their summer plans, even as airlines maintain that demand remains strong. This highlights the delicate balance between rising costs and consumer willingness to travel, especially for discretionary trips.

The details

Major U.S. airlines have not made major schedule cuts or price changes due to the Iran war, with disruptions mostly affecting carriers in the Middle East region. However, airlines have started raising checked bag fees, citing higher operating costs. Experts warn that prolonged oil supply disruptions could lead to a 30-40% reduction in global airline capacity, forcing travelers to make tough choices between travel and other expenses.

  • The Iran war began in early 2026.
  • Oil prices have risen sharply since the conflict started.
  • Airlines have not made major schedule cuts for summer 2026 travel yet.

The players

Dawn Montgomery

A journalist and media consultant from Decatur, Georgia who has canceled one of her three planned international trips this summer due to rising prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

Brett Snyder

The author of the Cranky Flier blog and owner of the Cranky Concierge travel agency, who provided analysis on the impact of the Iran war on U.S. airline operations and fares.

Diane Merians Penaloza

A lecturer at the City University of New York School of Professional Studies, who warned that prolonged disruption to global oil shipping could lead to a major reduction in global airline capacity.

Lindsay Owens

The executive director of the progressive think tank Groundwork Collaborative, who criticized airline executives for discussing ways to offset higher fuel costs by raising fares and fees.

Scott Kirby

The CEO of United Airlines, who stated the company's goal to fully offset the $4.6 billion increase in fuel prices through higher revenues.

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What they’re saying

“Out of the three international trips, I've already canceled the first (one).”

— Dawn Montgomery, Journalist and media consultant

“The revenue environment is really strong. By the way, we have a goal this year to fully offset the increase in fuel prices, which is about $4.6 billion at the moment for revenue to fully offset that.”

— Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines

“The war in Iran has airline executives practically tripping over themselves. They're following the COVID-era corporate playbook: giddily discussing how they can pad their pockets by using a crisis to gouge consumers already past their breaking point.”

— Lindsay Owens, Executive Director, Groundwork Collaborative

What’s next

Experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 12-18 months, global airline capacity could be reduced by 30-40%, leading to higher prices and fewer travel options for consumers. Travelers are advised to book summer trips soon, as prolonged oil disruptions could lead to more significant travel disruptions later in the year.

The takeaway

While summer travel appears stable so far, the ongoing uncertainty around the Iran war and its impact on oil prices is causing some travelers to reconsider their plans. This highlights the delicate balance between rising costs and consumer demand, and underscores the need for travelers to be flexible and proactive in booking their trips.