Ceasefire And Court Rulings Spare U.S. Economy From Total Iran War Fallout

American consumer confidence is still feeling the sting of the conflict in Iran, but a mix of stabilizing jobs and landmark court decisions might just save the domestic economy from a deeper tailspin.

Apr. 14, 2026 at 4:05pm

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An abstract illustration composed of overlapping geometric shapes in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conveying the complex interplay of economic factors and policy decisions that are shaping the U.S. economic outlook.A conceptual illustration capturing the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of global tensions, as stabilizing labor markets and policy shifts help offset the impact on consumer confidence.Today in Tampa

Despite a dip in consumer confidence due to the conflict in Iran, the U.S. economy is showing signs of resilience. Stabilizing labor markets, declining inflation expectations, and a Supreme Court decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs have helped offset the impact of rising energy prices. Small businesses, in particular, are benefiting from lower costs and are less likely to raise prices. However, the recovery remains uneven, with lower-income households still facing higher risks of pay loss.

Why it matters

The U.S. economy's ability to weather the fallout from the conflict in Iran is crucial for maintaining stability and consumer confidence. The combination of policy decisions, court rulings, and market trends could help prevent a deeper economic downturn and provide a path towards a soft landing.

The details

The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) has declined by 5.6 points since the start of the conflict in Iran on February 28. However, labor markets have remained steady, and inflation expectations are beginning to decline. A key factor in this resilience is the Supreme Court's decision to strike down the Trump-era tariffs, which is offsetting the spike in energy prices caused by the war. This has had a dramatic impact on small businesses, with the number of small businesses planning to raise prices dropping from 49.8% to 32.2% between the end of last year and the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, nearly 65% of small business owners now plan to keep prices unchanged.

  • The conflict in Iran began on February 28, 2026.
  • The Supreme Court's decision to strike down the Trump-era tariffs occurred recently.
  • The Morning Consult survey was conducted in late March 2026.

The players

Morning Consult

A data intelligence company that conducts surveys and provides real-time data on consumer sentiment and market trends.

Pernod Ricard

A multinational company that produces and distributes alcoholic beverages, including hosting a webinar with Morning Consult on using real-time data to navigate volatile market shifts.

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What’s next

Morning Consult will host Pernod Ricard on April 22 for a webinar focused on using real-time data to navigate these volatile market shifts.

The takeaway

The U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of the conflict in Iran, with stabilizing labor markets, declining inflation expectations, and the Supreme Court's decision to strike down tariffs helping to offset the impact of rising energy prices. While the recovery remains uneven, particularly for lower-income households, the overall outlook suggests a potential soft landing for the economy.