On3's Way-Too-Early Bowl Projections Have Texas in the CFP

But how far do the Longhorns go in the postseason?

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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On3's Brett McMurphy released his way-too-early bowl projections, slotting the Texas Longhorns as the No. 5 seed in the 2026 College Football Playoff. McMurphy had Texas hosting No. 12 UTSA in the first round, with the Longhorns prevailing, but then projected Texas to lose to No. 4 Miami in the quarterfinals.

Why it matters

Texas is looking to return to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2009. These early projections suggest the Longhorns have a path to the postseason, but will need to prove themselves against tough opponents like Miami to make a deep run.

The details

McMurphy's top four teams in his way-too-early projections were No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 4 Miami. He had Texas hosting No. 12 UTSA in the first round, a rematch of a regular season game, with the Longhorns advancing. However, McMurphy predicted Texas would then lose to Miami in the quarterfinals at the Cotton Bowl.

  • On February 18, 2026, On3's Brett McMurphy released his way-too-early bowl projections.
  • The 2026 College Football Playoff is scheduled to take place in December 2026 and January 2027.

The players

Brett McMurphy

A college football analyst who released the way-too-early bowl projections for On3.

Texas Longhorns

The college football team projected to make the 2026 College Football Playoff as the No. 5 seed.

UTSA

The Group of Six team projected to face Texas in the first round of the 2026 CFP as the No. 12 seed.

Miami Hurricanes

The college football team projected to defeat Texas in the quarterfinals of the 2026 CFP.

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What’s next

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The takeaway

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