Colorado State forecasters predict below-average hurricane season

Researchers cite expected El Niño conditions as primary driver of subdued Atlantic storm activity.

Apr. 17, 2026 at 8:41pm

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting featuring dark, ominous storm clouds looming over a small coastal town, conveying the overwhelming power and scale of an approaching tropical system.Even a predicted 'below-average' hurricane season can still produce devastating storms, underscoring the need for coastal communities to maintain vigilance and preparedness.Navarre Today

Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, citing an expected shift to El Niño conditions as the primary driver of the subdued storm activity.

Why it matters

Accurate hurricane forecasting is critical for communities in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions to prepare and mitigate the risks of extreme weather events. An early prediction of a below-average season could allow residents and businesses to breathe a sigh of relief, though experts caution that even a quiet year can still produce devastating storms.

The details

The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, led by renowned hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach, is forecasting 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. This is below the 30-year average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per year.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The players

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project

A leading research group that provides annual forecasts for Atlantic hurricane activity.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach

A renowned hurricane expert who leads the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

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What they’re saying

“The expected transition to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean is the primary factor driving our forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026.”

— Dr. Philip Klotzbach, Lead Researcher, Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project

What’s next

The Colorado State University team will provide updated hurricane forecasts in May, June, and July of 2026 as the season approaches.

The takeaway

While a quieter hurricane season is welcome news, experts caution that it only takes one major storm to cause catastrophic damage. Residents in vulnerable coastal areas should still maintain vigilance and preparedness throughout the entire hurricane season.