Venezuela's Delicate Dance with the Trump Administration

The precarious balance between oil, regime change, and political realities

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The Trump administration has pursued an erratic policy toward Venezuela, oscillating between maximum pressure and engagement over energy and immigration policy. This has led to a complex and often contradictory relationship with the Maduro regime, as the White House tries to balance increasing oil production, appeasing the Miami neocon lobby, and avoiding a destabilizing regime change. The article explores the various factions involved, the potential paths forward, and the implications for Secretary of State Marco Rubio's political future.

Why it matters

The situation in Venezuela is a delicate geopolitical balancing act, with high stakes for the region, US energy interests, and the political fortunes of key figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio. How the Trump administration navigates this complex landscape will have far-reaching consequences.

The details

The article details the back-and-forth between the Trump administration, the Maduro regime, and various factions in the US and Venezuela. It describes how the White House has oscillated between maximum pressure and engagement, including brokering deals with Maduro over oil and deportations, while facing pushback from the Miami neocon lobby led by Rubio. The piece also explores potential paths forward, including a power-sharing agreement modeled on past transitions in Latin America, as well as the administration's efforts to throttle Cuba's oil supply as a way to appease the Miami lobby.

  • On January 17, 2026, Venezuela's President Delcy Rodriguez met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe in Caracas.
  • Days later, Rodriguez pitched an 'anti-imperialist' reopening of the American embassy in Caracas to the one-party National Assembly.
  • In January 2025, Special Envoy Richard Grenell traveled to Caracas and brokered an agreement with Maduro over Chevron's oil license and deportation flights.
  • In July 2025, a three-way prisoner swap of Venezuelan detainees was conducted in exchange for ten American citizens held by Maduro.
  • On January 18, 2026, Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that multinationals would be responsible for their own security in Venezuela.

The players

Delcy Rodriguez

The president of Venezuela who met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe to discuss the Trump administration's plans for Venezuela's oil sector.

John Ratcliffe

The CIA Director who met with Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas, the most senior American official to visit Venezuela since the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro.

Nicolás Maduro

The former president of Venezuela who was kidnapped by U.S. forces two weeks prior to the meeting between Rodriguez and Ratcliffe.

Marco Rubio

The Secretary of State and a key figure in the Miami neocon lobby who has advocated for regime change in Venezuela.

Richard Grenell

The Special Envoy who traveled to Caracas in January 2025 and brokered an agreement with Maduro over Chevron's oil license and deportation flights.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.