US Diplomat Predicts Cuba Political Transition by 2026

Hammer says Washington is in talks with Cuban government representatives, warns of 'Plan B' if no progress in weeks

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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The U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba, Mike Hammer, signaled the potential beginning of a political transition on the island, stating that Washington is maintaining conversations with representatives of the Cuban government. He indicated that some within the Cuban government may not be aware of these contacts and warned of a 'Plan B' if progress is not made within weeks, suggesting 2026 as a potential timeline for change.

Why it matters

Hammer's statements align with President Trump's claims of ongoing dialogue with Havana, contradicting the Cuban government's denials. This signals a deliberate U.S. strategy to increase pressure on the Cuban regime, with the diplomat arguing the current model is unsustainable and the 'Cuban Revolution has failed'.

The details

Hammer suggested the existence of a figure within Cuba comparable to Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, though he declined to name this individual. He emphasized Washington's priority is a peaceful outcome, urging the world to 'wake up and help advance this process'. Hammer rejected the idea that the current crisis is a consequence of the Trump administration's policies, asserting the deterioration predates these measures and stems from the use of resources for repression.

  • Hammer made these statements in an interview with Telemundo in Miami on Tuesday.

The players

Mike Hammer

The U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba who signaled the potential beginning of a political transition on the island.

Donald Trump

The President of the United States who has stated that dialogue with Havana is underway and that news is expected.

Miguel Díaz-Canel

The President of Cuba who has publicly disagreed with President Trump about whether negotiations between their administrations are taking place.

Delcy Rodríguez

The interim president of Venezuela, whom Hammer suggested there may be a comparable figure within Cuba.

Carlos Fernández de Cossío

The Cuban Vice Foreign Minister who asserted that any conversations must occur 'with mutual respect' and dismissed reports of internal divisions as malicious.

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What they’re saying

“Obviously there are conversations with some extremely high within the regime. Others will not be aware.”

— Mike Hammer, U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba (Telemundo)

“Yes, there is a Delcy Rodríguez.”

— Mike Hammer, U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba (Telemundo)

“If in weeks it doesn't advance, there will be a Plan B.”

— Mike Hammer, U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba (Telemundo)

“Nobody wants to see bloodshed, but it is very important that a change takes place.”

— Mike Hammer, U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba (Telemundo)

“What Cubans on the street notify me is that the revolution has failed. They see it every day.”

— Mike Hammer, U.S. Chief of Mission in Cuba (Telemundo)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

Hammer's statements suggest a deliberate U.S. strategy to increase pressure on the Cuban government, signaling a willingness to pursue alternative approaches if current diplomatic efforts do not yield progress. The potential for a political transition in Cuba by 2026 raises questions about the role of international actors in facilitating a peaceful change.