Florida Midterm Elections Predicted to Be Close

New poll shows rising costs, foreign policy, and immigration driving down Republican support

Apr. 16, 2026 at 7:21pm

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A photorealistic painting of a single voter standing alone in front of a nondescript polling place, the scene bathed in warm, dramatic lighting and deep shadows, capturing the quiet contemplation and uncertainty of the electoral process.The high-stakes Florida midterm elections will test the state's political landscape as voters grapple with national issues like the economy and immigration.Hialeah Gardens Today

A new poll conducted among 1,800 Floridians predicts that the 2026 midterm elections in the state will be very close between Democrats and Republicans. The poll reveals a perfect storm of rising costs, unpopular foreign policy, and divisive immigration policy, which is driving down Trump's approval ratings and weakening the Republican Party's overall image in Florida.

Why it matters

The Florida midterm elections are seen as a key battleground that could determine the balance of power in Congress. The close race reflects the broader national trends, with Democrats mobilized and galvanized while Republicans face headwinds on key issues.

The details

According to the poll, when asked about their voting intentions between the two parties for the Florida Congress, respondents gave a slight edge to the Democrats. Similarly, the races for governor, U.S. senator, and attorney general are shaping up to be highly contested, even though some of those surveyed remain undecided.

  • The poll was conducted in April 2026 by EDGE Communications and MDW Communications.

The players

EDGE Communications

A political polling and communications firm that conducted the survey.

MDW Communications

A political polling and communications firm that co-conducted the survey.

Christian Ulvert

A spokesperson for EDGE Communications who commented on the poll results.

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What they’re saying

“What we're seeing in Florida isn't very different from what we're seeing in the rest of the country. The situation is evolving in real time, and Democrats are clearly mobilized and galvanized.”

— Christian Ulvert, Spokesperson, EDGE Communications

The takeaway

The close race in the Florida midterm elections reflects the broader national trends, with Democrats energized and Republicans facing headwinds on key issues like the economy and immigration. The outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in Congress.