Interactive Map Shows Highest 2026 Florida Hurricane Potential

Despite a quieter forecast, many Florida counties still face elevated storm odds.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 5:39pm

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting depicting the Florida coastline under ominous, swirling storm clouds, conveying the overwhelming scale and power of the natural forces at play.Even in a quieter hurricane season, Florida's exposed coastline faces an elevated risk of powerful storms that can devastate local communities.Fort Myers Today

A new interactive map from Colorado State University shows the probabilities of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes impacting Florida counties in the 2026 hurricane season. While the overall forecast calls for a slightly below-average season, several counties like Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Brevard still face high risks of being affected by tropical systems.

Why it matters

Florida is the state most prone to hurricane impacts in the U.S., with a long history of devastating landfalls. Even in a quieter year, understanding the localized risks can help residents and emergency managers prepare accordingly and avoid complacency.

The details

The map, based on data from Colorado State University, shows that Monroe County in the Florida Keys has the highest probability of a named storm (39%), hurricane (22%), and major hurricane (12%) passing within 50 miles in 2026. Other top counties include Miami-Dade, Brevard, Palm Beach, Collier, and Broward. While the overall Atlantic hurricane forecast is slightly below average, the probabilities are still elevated compared to a typical year due to Florida's geographic vulnerability.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
  • Colorado State University released its 43rd annual seasonal hurricane forecast on April 9, 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

A university that provides authoritative seasonal hurricane forecasts and analysis of tropical cyclone impacts.

Stephanie Hartman

Communications director at the Florida Division of Emergency Management, who commented on Florida's vulnerability to hurricanes during the National Hurricane Conference.

Michael Brennan

Director of the National Hurricane Center, who commented on the lack of U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2025.

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What they’re saying

“We're basically like a little thumb sticking out into the ocean. That means we have no room for complacency.”

— Stephanie Hartman, Communications Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management

“Every hurricane season can play out in very different ways. There was almost no activity in the Gulf, the Caribbean was quiet except for the catastrophic impacts of Melissa.”

— Michael Brennan, Director, National Hurricane Center

What’s next

As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, emergency management officials and residents in high-risk Florida counties will need to closely monitor forecasts and prepare accordingly, despite the slightly below-average overall outlook.

The takeaway

While the 2026 hurricane season may be quieter than average, Florida's unique geographic vulnerability means many counties still face elevated storm risks. Maintaining hurricane preparedness is crucial, even in years when the overall forecast is less active.