The World Reorders: India and the Spheres of Influence Debate

Examining the impact of the Trump administration's foreign policy reprioritization on the Indo-Pacific, U.S.–China rivalry, and India's strategic implications

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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This article examines the debate on whether the world has returned to spheres of influence by great powers, and the impact of the Trump administration's foreign policy reprioritization on the Indo-Pacific region and India's strategic challenges. It argues that while the Trump administration's doctrine may be one of reprioritization rather than definitive spheres of influence, the policy changes will affect the countries of the Indo-Pacific, potentially shifting regional policies out of alignment with Washington's priorities. For India, this presents both challenges and opportunities to provide the necessary rubric to the rules-based international order and strengthen partnerships with like-minded partners in the region and beyond.

Why it matters

The debate on spheres of influence by great powers has significant implications for the global balance of power and the future of the rules-based international order. As the United States appears to be reversing its commitments to the Indo-Pacific, it creates both challenges and opportunities for India, a central player in the region, to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape.

The details

The article examines the Trump administration's foreign policy reprioritization, its impact on the Indo-Pacific, U.S.–China rivalry, and the strategic implications for India. It argues that while the Trump administration's doctrine may be one of reprioritization rather than definitive spheres of influence, the policy changes will affect the countries of the Indo-Pacific, potentially shifting regional policies out of alignment with Washington's priorities. For India, this presents both challenges and opportunities to provide the necessary rubric to the rules-based international order and strengthen partnerships with like-minded partners in the region and beyond.

  • The article was published on February 15, 2026.

The players

Trump administration

The former U.S. presidential administration led by Donald Trump, whose foreign policy reprioritization and ambiguous approach to spheres of influence have had significant implications for the Indo-Pacific region.

India

A central player in the Indo-Pacific region, facing both challenges and opportunities as a result of the shifting geopolitical landscape caused by the Trump administration's policy changes.

China

A great power that stands to gain from the Trump administration's apparent reversal from its Indo-Pacific commitments, potentially strengthening its position in the region.

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What’s next

The article does not mention any specific next steps, as it is an analysis of the broader geopolitical shifts and their implications for India. The future developments in the Indo-Pacific region and the U.S.–China rivalry will be crucial to watch in the coming years.

The takeaway

The debate on spheres of influence by great powers has significant implications for the global balance of power and the future of the rules-based international order. As the United States appears to be reversing its commitments to the Indo-Pacific, it creates both challenges and opportunities for India to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape, strengthen partnerships with like-minded partners, and potentially provide the necessary rubric to the rules-based international order.