Can the U.S. Repeat Venezuela Success in Iran?

Experts debate whether Trump administration can topple Iran's regime like it did Venezuela's Maduro.

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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Experts debated whether the Trump administration could replicate its success in ousting Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in Iran, with differing views on the likelihood and consequences of such an outcome. While some saw parallels, others warned that Iran's regime may be more entrenched and that a violent collapse could have dire regional implications.

Why it matters

The discussion highlighted how the Trump administration's foreign policy approach has reshaped the debate in Washington, with even critics acknowledging its impact. The potential for regime change in Iran is a high-stakes issue with major geopolitical ramifications.

The details

The panel featured experts with differing perspectives. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute argued that Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is nearing the end of his reign, and that defections from within the regime could facilitate his downfall, similar to what happened in Venezuela. However, Sina Azodi of George Washington University was skeptical of the exiled Iranian prince Reza Pahlavi playing a unifying role, warning that a violent collapse of the regime could lead to regional instability. The panelists debated the role of the Iranian military, the threat of missile attacks, and the interests of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

  • The panel discussion took place on Thursday in Washington, D.C.

The players

Paul Pillar

A senior fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies and a former CIA official.

Alex Vatanka

A senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Sina Azodi

The director of Middle East Studies at George Washington University.

Reza Pahlavi

The son of the deposed shah of Iran, seen by some as a potential transitional leader.

James Rubin

A former State Department official who served in the Clinton and Biden administrations.

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What they’re saying

“Can the Trump administration do in Iran what it pulled off in Venezuela last month?”

— Paul Pillar, Senior Fellow, Georgetown University Center for Security Studies (The National Interest)

“The overwhelming majority of Iranians — 70% in Vatanka's estimation — have come of age since 1979. They have no harsh memories of the monarchy's own brutalities; all the horrors they've endured have been perpetrated by the clerical regime, and if nothing else, Pahlavi is a symbol of some — any — alternative.”

— Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute (The National Interest)

“He is not a unifying factor, and by threatening to hang anyone associated with the present regime, he only reinforces its cohesion.”

— Sina Azodi, Director of Middle East Studies, George Washington University (The National Interest)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This discussion highlights the ongoing debate over the Trump administration's approach to Iran and the potential for regime change, with experts divided on the likelihood of success and the potential consequences. The conversation reflects how Trump has reshaped foreign policy discussions in Washington, even among his critics.