PIMCO Sees 'Peak Trump' Already Passed

Investment firm says Trump's presidential power has limits as he faces midterm elections and court challenges.

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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According to investment management firm PIMCO, the apex of President Donald Trump's presidential power, or 'Peak Trump', has already passed. PIMCO's head of public policy, Libby Cantrill, wrote that Trump faced increasing roadblocks in 2026, including a Supreme Court decision on the legality of his tariffs, pushback from Senate Democrats on Federal Reserve nominations, and the looming midterm elections. Cantrill said Trump's flagging approval ratings could also limit his ability to push his agenda, though markets have remained relatively stable despite the volatility.

Why it matters

This analysis suggests that Trump's ability to unilaterally enact his agenda may be waning, with Congress, the courts, and public opinion posing growing constraints. This could have implications for the direction of economic and trade policy in the coming years.

The details

Cantrill noted that in 2025, Trump was able to impose policies with little pushback from Congress or the courts. However, roadblocks are now emerging, including a pending Supreme Court ruling on the legality of his 'Liberation Day' tariffs and Senate Democrats refusing to move forward on a Federal Reserve nominee unless a DOJ investigation is dropped. The upcoming midterm elections also pose a challenge, as the White House looks to sell positive economic news.

  • The Supreme Court has been expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs since January 2026.
  • Senate Democrats have said they will refuse to move forward on a Federal Reserve nomination until a DOJ investigation is dropped.

The players

Libby Cantrill

Head of public policy at PIMCO, an investment management firm.

Donald Trump

The 45th President of the United States.

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What they’re saying

“Markets may be reminded that under the U.S. Constitution, no president—even one as historic as President Trump—has unchecked power.”

— Libby Cantrill, Head of public policy (PIMCO)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could impact the administration's trade agenda. The White House is also facing a standoff with Senate Democrats over a Federal Reserve nomination.

The takeaway

This analysis suggests that President Trump's ability to unilaterally push his agenda is facing increasing constraints from Congress, the courts, and public opinion. While markets have remained relatively stable, the political landscape is shifting, which could have implications for economic and trade policy in the coming years.