Experts Dismiss Claims of Imminent China Collapse

Despite Western narratives, China's economy and military remain strong, experts say.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The article argues that claims of an imminent collapse of China's regime are misguided and dangerous. It contends that while China faces economic challenges, the country's manufacturing dominance and military strength make a sudden implosion highly unlikely. The author criticizes Western elites for embracing "strategic coping mechanisms" that downplay China's rise, and warns that foreign policy built on such fantasies could lead to disastrous outcomes for the United States.

Why it matters

The article suggests that the West's tendency to overestimate China's weaknesses and underestimate its resilience could have serious strategic consequences. It cautions that a realistic assessment of China's capabilities is crucial to avoid policy mistakes akin to the Iraq War.

The details

The piece cites several examples of unsubstantiated claims about China's internal turmoil, such as rumors of a coup against President Xi Jinping and the purge of senior military leaders. It argues these narratives are part of a "strategic coping mechanism" among Western elites who are uncomfortable with China's rise. The author also points to China's massive trade surplus and manufacturing dominance as evidence of the country's economic strength, despite challenges like a housing crisis and demographic decline.

  • In the last quarter of 2025, China's trade surplus reached an astonishing $1.2 trillion.
  • Earlier this year, President Xi Jinping directed a massive purge against senior military leaders in the Central Military Commission.

The players

Xi Jinping

The president of the People's Republic of China who has consolidated power and overseen China's economic and military rise.

General Zhang Youxia

A senior People's Liberation Army officer who was removed from his position by President Xi Jinping as part of the recent military purge.

The American Conservative

The publication that originally published this article analyzing Western perceptions of China's stability and power.

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What they’re saying

“Don't worry about what China does wrong. Worry about what they do right.”

— David P. Goldman, Former editor at the Asia Times (The American Conservative)

What’s next

The article does not mention any clear future newsworthy events related to this story.

The takeaway

This article cautions that the West's tendency to dismiss China's strengths and overestimate its weaknesses could lead to dangerous policy missteps. It argues that a realistic assessment of China's economic and military capabilities is crucial to avoid repeating past strategic errors.