CBO Predicts Unsustainable Debt and Deficits by 2036

Federal budget deficit to reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, $3.1 trillion by 2036, according to Congressional Budget Office report.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a report predicting that the nation's debt and federal deficit will become unsustainable and worsen by trillions of dollars over the next 10 years. The CBO projects the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2026, equal to about 5.8% of the nation's gross domestic product, and rise to $3.1 trillion within 10 years, equaling 6.7% of the anticipated GDP in 2036.

Why it matters

The CBO's projections of ballooning deficits and debt raise concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the United States. Sustained large deficits, even with low unemployment, could lead to economic instability and limit the government's ability to respond to future crises or invest in priorities.

The details

The CBO cited several factors driving the deficit and debt projections, including prior tax cuts that were extended, tariffs, and decreased immigration. The report stated that tax provisions, including the permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Act, increase deficits, as does increased spending on defense and homeland security. However, other provisions of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, such as changes to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, are projected to reduce deficits. The CBO also noted that tariffs should reduce national deficits by a combined total of $3 trillion over the next decade, but decreased immigration is likely to add about $500 billion to the deficits.

  • The CBO report was released on February 11, 2026.
  • The CBO projects the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2026.
  • The CBO projects the federal budget deficit will reach $3.1 trillion within 10 years, by 2036.

The players

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

A nonpartisan federal agency that provides budget and economic information to Congress.

Philip Swagel

Director of the Congressional Budget Office.

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What they’re saying

“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable.”

— Philip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office

“Tax provisions, including the permanent extension of provisions of the 2017 Tax Act, increase deficits, as does increased spending on defense and homeland security.”

— Philip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office

What’s next

The CBO report will likely prompt further discussions and debates in Congress and the White House about addressing the growing national debt and deficits.

The takeaway

The CBO's projections of unsustainable debt and deficits by 2036 highlight the need for policymakers to take action to address the nation's long-term fiscal challenges, including through a balanced approach of revenue increases and spending reductions.