CBO Predicts Unsustainable Debt and Deficits by 2036

The national debt is projected to top $61 trillion by 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has reported that the nation's debt and federal deficit are likely to become unsustainable and worsen by trillions of dollars over the next 10 years. The CBO projected the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2026, equal to about 5.8% of the nation's gross domestic product, and rise to $3.1 trillion within 10 years, equal to 6.7% of the anticipated GDP in 2036. The CBO also predicted the cumulative amount of national debt due to the annual deficits to grow by $23.1 trillion by 2036, totaling $61.66 trillion when added to the current debt of $38.56 trillion.

Why it matters

The CBO's projections of unsustainable debt and deficits raise concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the United States. High levels of national debt can lead to higher interest rates, reduced investment, and limited government's ability to respond to economic shocks or fund important priorities. These findings also come at a time when the U.S. is facing other economic challenges, such as high inflation and potential recession.

The details

The CBO cited several factors driving the deficit and debt projections, including prior tax cuts that were extended, tariffs, and decreased immigration. The CBO said tax provisions, including the permanent extension of provisions of the 2017 Tax Act, increase deficits, as does increased spending on defense and homeland security. However, other provisions of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, such as changes to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, are expected to reduce deficits. The CBO also noted that tariffs should reduce national deficits by a combined total of $3 trillion over the next decade, but decreased immigration is likely to add about $500 billion to the deficits.

  • The CBO projected the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2026.
  • The CBO predicted the annual deficit will rise to $3.1 trillion within 10 years, which would equal 6.7% of the anticipated gross domestic product in 2036.

The players

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

A nonpartisan federal agency that provides budget and economic information to Congress.

Philip Swagel

The Director of the Congressional Budget Office.

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What they’re saying

“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable.”

— Philip Swagel, Director, Congressional Budget Office

“Tax provisions, including the permanent extension of provisions of the 2017 Tax Act, increase deficits, as does increased spending on defense and homeland security.”

— Philip Swagel, Director, Congressional Budget Office

What’s next

The CBO's findings are likely to spur debate in Congress and the administration about how to address the growing national debt and deficits, potentially leading to proposals for spending cuts, tax increases, or other fiscal policy changes.

The takeaway

The CBO's projections of unsustainable debt and deficits highlight the long-term fiscal challenges facing the United States and the need for policymakers to develop a comprehensive plan to bring the nation's finances under control and ensure its long-term economic stability.