Quarterbacks Ride Luck in 2025, Impacting 2026 Fantasy

Analyzing which QBs were on the right and wrong side of variance last season and what it means for the year ahead.

Feb. 18, 2026 at 7:47pm

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NFL analyst Denny Carter examines the role of luck and variance in quarterback performance, looking at air yards conversion rates and dropped passes to identify which QBs were fortunate or unfortunate in 2025. This analysis provides insights into potential regression candidates and breakout stars for the 2026 fantasy football season.

Why it matters

Understanding the impact of luck and variance on quarterback stats is crucial for making informed fantasy football decisions. Identifying QBs who were on the right or wrong side of these metrics can help predict which players are likely to see their production rise or fall in the upcoming season.

The details

Carter highlights several quarterbacks who stood out in 2025 air yards conversion rates, including Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, and Sam Darnold. He also spotlights QBs who struggled in this metric, such as Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield, suggesting potential regression or bounce-back seasons. The analysis also covers the impact of key receivers' air yards conversion rates on their QBs' performance.

  • The 2025 NFL season just concluded.

The players

Brock Purdy

The San Francisco 49ers quarterback had one of the highest air yards conversion rates in the NFL in 2025, though his average depth of target decreased from the previous season.

Drake Maye

The New England Patriots quarterback led the league in air yards per attempt in 2025 while also posting a high conversion rate, though Carter expects some regression in 2026.

Sam Darnold

The Carolina Panthers quarterback was among the league leaders in air yards conversion rate in 2024 and 2025, suggesting he may be a better real-life and fantasy QB than his early career with the Jets indicated.

Russell Wilson

The Denver Broncos quarterback saw his air yards conversion rate plummet in 2025, raising concerns about his efficiency and potential regression.

Baker Mayfield

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback's air yards conversion rate dropped significantly in 2025, potentially due to injuries to his pass catchers, but Carter expects a bounce-back in 2026 with Mike Evans returning.

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What they’re saying

“I'm OK talking about the inescapable role of variance in football. Sometimes it bothers the folks tuning into my NFL on NBC YouTube live stream on Fridays during the regular season. They don't want to know about a player getting lucky or unlucky; they want to know about which player is going to score some dang fantasy points that weekend.”

— Denny Carter, NFL Analyst

“Every offseason I look at players who were on the right or wrong side of volatility — guys you might call regression candidates. Much of this analysis is based on air yards: How often they are converted, how many there were to go around, things of that nature.”

— Zachary Krueger, NFL Analyst

What’s next

As the 2026 NFL offseason progresses, fantasy managers will closely monitor how teams address their quarterback and wide receiver needs, as those moves could significantly impact the outlook for QBs who were on the right or wrong side of variance in 2025.

The takeaway

Accounting for luck and variance is crucial for fantasy football success. By identifying QBs who were unusually efficient or inefficient in converting air yards, fantasy managers can better predict which passers are likely to see their production rise or fall in the upcoming season, informing draft strategy and in-season roster decisions.