NFL's Top Regression Candidates for 2026 Season

Patriots, Bears, Broncos, Steelers, and Eagles poised for major fall-offs after strong 2025 campaigns

Feb. 12, 2026 at 10:47am

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The 2025 NFL season saw several surprising teams make the playoffs, including the New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Philadelphia Eagles. However, these teams may be in for a rude awakening in 2026 as they are prime candidates for major regression, according to analysts.

Why it matters

Parity is a hallmark of the NFL, with bad teams often becoming elite the very next season. But the pendulum can also swing the other way, as successful teams from one year can quickly fall off the map. Understanding which teams are poised for regression is crucial for fans, bettors, and fantasy players alike as they prepare for the upcoming season.

The details

The Bears, Broncos, Steelers, Patriots, and Eagles all benefited from various forms of good fortune in 2025 that are unlikely to repeat. The Bears and Broncos relied heavily on close-game heroics and comebacks that historically regress. The Steelers' success hinges on the uncertain future of QB Aaron Rodgers. The Patriots coasted through the easiest schedule in the NFL. And the Eagles dealt with significant coaching staff turnover and a regression from QB Jalen Hurts. All of these factors point to potential fall-offs for these teams in 2026.

  • The 2025 NFL season saw unprecedented parity, with the most playoff teams (5) coming off 11-plus loss seasons and the most division winners (4) with 5 or fewer wins the prior year.
  • The 2025 Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings all missed the playoffs a year after winning 15+ games.
  • The 2025 New England Patriots went from 4 wins in 2023-24 to winning the AFC.

The players

Bo Nix

The Denver Broncos' starting quarterback, who saw a decline in his efficiency metrics in 2025 after a strong rookie season in 2024.

Aaron Rodgers

The Pittsburgh Steelers' starting quarterback in 2025, who is set to hit free agency this offseason at age 43.

Jalen Hurts

The Philadelphia Eagles' starting quarterback, who regressed in several key statistical categories in 2025 after leading the team to a Super Bowl win in 2024.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

The offseason will be crucial for these teams as they look to address roster and coaching staff needs in order to avoid a major fall-off in 2026.

The takeaway

The unpredictable nature of the NFL means that even the most successful teams can quickly fall back to earth. These five squads will need to make savvy offseason moves and avoid relying on unsustainable factors like close-game heroics if they hope to maintain their 2025 levels of success.