Truck Rates at Highest Since 2022 Add to Inflation Pressures

Skyrocketing fuel prices due to the Iran war are fanning the embers of transportation costs, which were already rising due to a shrinking pool of drivers

Apr. 8, 2026 at 5:03am

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A vibrant abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of red, blue, and yellow, conceptually representing the rising costs of transportation and its impact on inflation.Surging fuel prices and a shrinking labor pool are driving up the costs of moving goods across the country, adding to broader inflationary pressures.Tracy Today

Trucking operators have seen diesel prices spike by almost 50% since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran at the end of February. Haulers have responded by raising the weekly per-mile fuel surcharge paid by shippers to its highest since 2022. Those surcharges come on top of a months-long increase in truck-equipment rates, which are charged to move goods around the country and are higher in part due to trucker shortages. Employment in the industry has tumbled since peaking during the pandemic reopening rush and is now the lowest since September 2020.

Why it matters

Although transportation costs represent a relatively small portion of the final price consumers pay for goods, the surge in shipping expenses risk adding to inflationary pressures. March data due Friday is expected to show the biggest annual increase in consumer prices in two years.

The details

With a shrinking pool of workers and now the surge in fuel costs, transportation firms are dealing with a double hit. A crackdown on certain foreign holders of commercial driver's licenses due to safety concerns is contributing to the tighter market for truckers. Trucking companies generally operate on small profit margins, so fuel price increases are typically passed along because they can't afford to eat those costs.

  • Diesel prices have spiked by almost 50% since the end of February.
  • Fuel surcharges paid by shippers are at their highest level since 2022.
  • Truck-equipment rates have been increasing for months.
  • Employment in the trucking industry is now the lowest since September 2020.
  • March consumer price data is expected to show the biggest annual increase in two years.

The players

Truckstop.com

A data provider that tracks trucking industry metrics.

Jason Miller

A supply chain professor at Michigan State University.

Steve Miller

Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

James Peoples

An economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who studies transportation.

Bob Costello

Chief economist at American Trucking Associations.

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What they’re saying

“You're going to see just about across-the-board commodities affected by the high fuel cost or high transportation costs.”

— James Peoples, economics professor

“We can adequately predict anything that travels, whether it's over the road in the US or ocean freight, it's going to increase.”

— Susan Spence, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

What’s next

The US Postal Service plans to raise prices to offset rising transportation expenses including the cost of fuel, an unusual step for the agency. Companies like United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp. commonly use surcharges to offset higher fuel costs.

The takeaway

The surge in transportation costs, driven by skyrocketing fuel prices and a shrinking pool of truck drivers, is expected to add to broader inflationary pressures in the US economy. This highlights the ripple effects of global events like the Iran war on everyday consumer prices.