Fed's Daly Says Too Early to Assess Long-Term Impact of Iran War

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly cautions it's premature to judge economic fallout from ongoing conflict.

Apr. 17, 2026 at 4:40pm by

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A geometric abstract illustration composed of overlapping triangles and rectangles in shades of blue, red, and yellow, conveying a sense of economic uncertainty and instability.As the Federal Reserve navigates the economic fallout from the Iran war, policymakers remain uncertain about the long-term impacts.San Francisco Today

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stated during a speech at UC Berkeley that it is still too early to determine whether the ongoing war in Iran will result in a long-term economic shock for the United States. Daly cautioned that the full impact of the conflict on the economy remains uncertain at this stage.

Why it matters

As one of the Federal Reserve's top policymakers, Daly's assessment of the potential economic fallout from the Iran war carries significant weight. Her comments suggest the central bank is closely monitoring the situation but remains uncertain about the long-term implications, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.

The details

In her remarks, Daly noted that the Fed is carefully tracking the economic effects of the war, including its impact on energy prices, supply chains, and consumer confidence. However, she stated that it is premature to draw any firm conclusions about whether the conflict will trigger a prolonged economic downturn or disruption.

  • Daly made these comments during a speech at UC Berkeley on April 17, 2026.

The players

Mary Daly

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, one of the central bank's top policymakers.

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What they’re saying

“It is too early to know whether the war in Iran will create a long-term economic shock.”

— Mary Daly, President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

What’s next

The Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor the economic impact of the Iran war and may adjust monetary policy accordingly as the situation evolves.

The takeaway

Daly's cautious assessment underscores the uncertainty surrounding the long-term economic implications of the ongoing conflict in Iran, which will likely be a key factor shaping the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in the months ahead.