Italy's Exports to US Grow Despite Tariffs, But Fragility Remains

Pharmaceutical shipments and one-off factors distort the picture, masking underlying weaknesses in Italy's trade resilience.

Apr. 14, 2026 at 5:10am

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A minimalist abstract illustration featuring overlapping geometric shapes in navy blue, olive green, and burnt orange, conveying the complex and fragile nature of Italy's trade relationship with the United States.Italy's exports to the U.S. may appear strong, but the data reveals underlying vulnerabilities that could be exposed by future tariff hikes.Piedmont Today

Italy was the only major EU country to see its exports to the United States grow in 2025, despite Donald Trump's tariffs. However, a closer look at the data shows this was largely driven by a surge in pharmaceutical shipments and other one-off factors, rather than underlying strength. Stripping out these distortions, Italy's exports to the U.S. actually fell, exposing the country's fragility to potential future tariff hikes.

Why it matters

Italy's heavy reliance on the U.S. market, which now accounts for over 10% of its exports, makes it particularly vulnerable to trade tensions and tariffs. With Italy's already weak economic growth now threatened by surging energy costs, the country's export performance is a key concern. The data suggests Italy may need to diversify its export markets to build greater resilience.

The details

The 7.2% year-on-year rise in U.S. sales reported by Italy's national statistics bureau ISTAT was almost entirely driven by a 54.1% increase in pharmaceutical shipments, which were likely front-loaded ahead of the import duty hikes. Stripping out pharmaceuticals, Italy's exports to the U.S. actually fell by 1.6%, and by 5.7% when also removing exceptional orders for ships and other large transport items. Out of 22 manufacturing sectors measured, 16 saw declines in U.S. purchases last year, some posting double-digit falls.

  • In 2025, Italy's exports to the U.S. grew by 7.2% year-on-year.
  • The 15% "reciprocal" tariff agreement between Trump and the EU only came into effect in August 2025, so its main impact has yet to be felt.

The players

Antonio Tajani

Italy's Foreign Minister, who told parliament that "Italian expertise is stronger than tariffs" after the export growth was reported.

Mauro Gallegati

Professor of Economics at Marche Polytechnic University, who said "Italy's trade with the U.S. seems to be in good shape, but when looking at the details, the overall picture is far from positive."

Marco Leonardi

Economics professor at Milan's Statale University, who said Italy's reliance on foreign-owned pharmaceutical companies makes the sector "highly vulnerable to future, possibly sector-specific, tariff hikes."

Barbara Cimmino

Vice president of Confindustria, who said Italian companies "should focus on market diversification" to counter the impact of tariffs.

Riccardo Cavanna

Owner of a family-run packaging machinery business in Piedmont, who said he has had to increase personal trips to the U.S. to defend his market share, as "tariffs is the new normal."

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What they’re saying

“Italian expertise is stronger than tariffs.”

— Antonio Tajani, Italy's Foreign Minister

“Italy's trade with the U.S. seems to be in good shape, but when looking at the details, the overall picture is far from positive.”

— Mauro Gallegati, Professor of Economics at Marche Polytechnic University

“This makes pharmaceuticals highly vulnerable to future, possibly sector-specific, tariff hikes by Trump which could act as an incentive for the companies to reshore.”

— Marco Leonardi, Economics professor at Milan's Statale University

“We have always taken care to balance out exposure across various markets, but the tariffs have ended up causing problems for us too, because many companies that were heavily reliant on the U.S. market have had to become much more aggressive in markets where they previously had a smaller presence.”

— Massimo Podda, Sales director at Cantina Santadi winery

“It's not really the time for remote working: You need to have your suitcase packed, because you have to go out and find clients and projects.”

— Riccardo Cavanna, Owner of a family-run packaging machinery business

What’s next

The full impact of the 15% "reciprocal" tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. is still to be felt, as it only came into effect in August 2025. This could further erode Italy's export performance to the U.S. market in the coming year.

The takeaway

While Italy's exports to the U.S. showed a surprising increase in 2025, a deeper analysis reveals this was largely driven by one-off factors like pharmaceutical shipments, rather than underlying resilience. Italy's heavy reliance on the U.S. market makes it vulnerable to potential future tariff hikes, underscoring the need for the country to diversify its export destinations to build greater trade resilience.