San Diego's Housing Woes Rooted in Affordability, Not Shortage

Experts say the 'housing shortage' myth has led to misguided proposals like vacant home taxes and developer giveaways.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 11:55pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The debate over San Diego's housing challenges has centered on the idea of a 'housing shortage,' but experts argue the real issue is affordability. Data shows ample inventory of homes and apartments for sale and rent, yet prices remain high due to strong market demand. Proposed solutions like vacant home taxes and upzoning have failed to address the underlying problem in other cities, experts warn.

Why it matters

San Diego's high housing costs have priced out many residents, contributing to homelessness and economic inequality. Understanding the true nature of the housing challenge is crucial to developing effective policies that can improve affordability without unintended consequences.

The details

Critics argue the 'housing shortage' narrative has led to misguided proposals, including a 'vacant home tax' and giveaways to developers. Data shows over 2,200 homes and condos for sale and 12,000 rentals within city limits. Experts say the high prices are driven by market demand, not supply constraints. Upzoning and vacant home taxes have failed to lower costs in other cities, they warn.

  • In 2025, San Diego saw a 25-year high in apartment deliveries, outpacing demand by 40%.
  • In 2026, the city is considering a 'vacant home tax' and other measures to address housing challenges.

The players

James H

A Mission Hills North resident who questions the city's belief that there is a housing crisis.

Eric Law

A commenter who argues that short-term vacation rentals, not a shortage, are the main driver of high housing costs.

Tanja Kropf

A commenter who cites data showing San Diego's apartment vacancy rate has climbed to a 15-year high due to overbuilding.

Tom Mullaney

A commenter who references independent research indicating that housing is expensive in San Diego due to market demand, not a shortage.

Patrick Condon

A professor, planner, and author in Vancouver who now says upzoning does not lower housing costs, contrary to his previous views.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I am trying to figure out why our city council believe there is a housing crisis. Zillow shows over 2,200 homes and condos for sale and over 12,000 homes and apartments for rent within San Diego city limits. It costs a lot to live in paradise and that isn't going to change.”

— James H, Mission Hills North resident

“If the city wanted to put more housing back on the market, they would eliminate all STVR's. STVR's account for 17,000 units not on the market. Vacation homes only count for about 5,000. There is hard data that confirms that the presence of STVR's in a market increase local rental prices by one to five percent.”

— Eric Law

“San Diego's apartment vacancy rate has climbed to its highest level in over 15 years, as supply surges. In 2025, deliveries came in at a 25-year high, outpacing demand by 40 percent, according to CoStar Group data.”

— Tanja Kropf

“Housing is expensive in San Diego because it's a nice place to live (market demand). The large number of vacant units is evidence that there is not a 'housing shortage'. The proposed tax on vacant homes and second homes will not lower prices.”

— Tom Mullaney

“We have incrementally quadrupled the density of Vancouver, but we haven't seen any decrease in per square foot costs. That evidence is indisputable. We can conclude there is a problem beyond restrictive zoning. … No amount of opening zoning or allowing for development will cause prices to go down. We've seen no evidence of that at all.”

— Patrick Condon, Professor, University of British Columbia School of Architecture

What’s next

The city is expected to consider a 'vacant home tax' and other measures to address housing challenges in the coming months.

The takeaway

San Diego's housing crisis is fundamentally an affordability issue, not a shortage. Proposed solutions like vacant home taxes and upzoning have failed to lower costs in other cities, suggesting policymakers need to look beyond simplistic supply-side fixes and address the underlying drivers of high housing demand in desirable urban areas.