Study Finds Warming World Increases Extreme Fire Weather Globally

Researchers say climate change is responsible for over 60% of the rise in synchronous fire weather days.

Published on Feb. 23, 2026

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A new study has found that the number of days with hot, dry, and windy weather conditions ideal for sparking extreme wildfires has nearly tripled globally in the past 45 years. The researchers attribute more than 60% of this increase to human-caused climate change from the burning of fossil fuels. The study warns this rise in synchronous fire weather across regions will make it harder for countries to share resources to fight the blazes.

Why it matters

As the world warms, more places are prone to experience extreme fire weather at the same time, straining firefighting resources. This could lead to more uncontrolled wildfires with devastating impacts on communities, ecosystems, and the climate.

The details

The study found that in 1979-1994, the world averaged 22 synchronous fire weather days per year. But in 2023-2024, that number had risen to over 60 days per year. The researchers say this increase the likelihood of widespread, hard-to-suppress wildfires. While the weather is a key factor, fires also require fuel, oxygen, and ignition sources. The study focused specifically on the rise in extreme fire weather conditions.

  • From 1979 to 1988, the continental U.S. averaged 7.7 synchronous fire weather days per year.
  • In the last 10 years, the U.S. average has risen to 38 days per year.
  • In southern South America, the average increased from 5.5 days per year in 1979-1988 to 70.6 days per year in the last decade, including 118 days in 2023.

The players

John Abatzoglou

A fire scientist at the University of California, Merced and co-author of the study.

Cong Yin

The lead author of the study and a fire researcher at the University of California, Merced.

Mike Flannigan

A fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in Canada who was not involved in the study.

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What they’re saying

“These sorts of changes that we have seen increase the likelihood in a lot of areas that there will be fires that are going to be very challenging to suppress.”

— John Abatzoglou, Fire scientist

“It increases the likelihood of widespread fire outbreaks, but the weather is one dimension.”

— Cong Yin, Fire researcher

“And that's where things begin to break.”

— John Abatzoglou, Fire scientist

What’s next

The study did not examine actual fire data, only the weather conditions that can lead to extreme wildfires. Further research is needed to understand the full impacts of the rise in synchronous fire weather on communities, ecosystems, and firefighting efforts around the world.

The takeaway

This study highlights how climate change is increasing the risk of uncontrolled, widespread wildfires globally by creating more days with the ideal hot, dry, and windy conditions to fuel them. Policymakers and fire management agencies will need to adapt to this new reality of more frequent and challenging fire seasons.