Prediction Markets Raise Ethical Concerns for Journalists

News outlets grapple with how to handle staff participation in betting on news events.

Apr. 17, 2026 at 6:07pm

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A minimalist, photorealistic studio still life featuring a stack of newspapers, a laptop, and a calculator arranged on a clean, monochromatic background, symbolizing the intersection of journalism, technology, and financial markets.As prediction markets blur the line between news and gambling, journalists must navigate new ethical challenges to maintain the integrity of their reporting.Los Angeles Today

The rapid rise of prediction market exchanges like Polymarket and Kalshi has put newsrooms in a tricky position. These platforms allow users to bet on all kinds of news events, effectively monetizing the information that journalists encounter on the job. This has led some outlets, like ProPublica, to update their ethics policies to explicitly prohibit staff from wagering on news they cover. However, many news organizations are also cutting deals with these prediction market platforms, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.

Why it matters

Journalists are tasked with reporting the news objectively, but prediction markets create an environment where the information they uncover suddenly has a dollar value attached to it. This raises concerns about conflicts of interest, insider trading, and the overall integrity of news reporting if journalists or their household members are profiting off the very events they are covering.

The details

ProPublica has updated its code of ethics to prohibit staff from betting on news events they are involved in covering, reasoning that this is akin to not allowing them to invest in companies they report on. Other outlets like The New York Times and The Verge say their existing conflict of interest policies already cover prediction market activities, but they are monitoring the situation and may tighten policies if needed. At the same time, news organizations from CNN to The Wall Street Journal have struck data partnerships or advertising deals with prediction market platforms, further blurring the lines.

  • In January 2022, Dow Jones, which publishes The Wall Street Journal, entered into a data partnership with Polymarket.
  • Earlier this week, ProPublica announced it was updating its code of ethics to explicitly mention restrictions on how staff use prediction markets.

The players

ProPublica

A nonprofit investigative journalism organization.

Polymarket

A prediction market exchange platform.

Kalshi

A prediction market exchange platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Diego Sorbara

Assistant managing editor at ProPublica.

Nilay Patel

Editor-in-chief of The Verge.

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What they’re saying

“If you are covering, let's say, a war in Iran, you also shouldn't be taking monetary stakes in it so that you're somehow enriching yourself off the news events.”

— Diego Sorbara, Assistant managing editor at ProPublica

“Right now my read is that the current ethics policy prevents conflicts of interest, which cover gambling on news. But if we need to write a tighter policy specifically for prediction markets we'll keep an eye on things and do that without hesitation.”

— Nilay Patel, Editor-in-chief of The Verge

What’s next

News outlets will likely continue to monitor the situation and update their ethics policies as needed to address the growing influence of prediction markets and the potential conflicts of interest they pose for journalists.

The takeaway

The rise of prediction markets has created a new ethical minefield for journalists, who must navigate the fine line between reporting the news objectively and avoiding the temptation to profit from the very information they uncover. As these platforms become more mainstream, news organizations will need to establish clear guidelines to protect the integrity of their reporting and maintain the trust of their readers.