United and American Airlines Explore Merger, Experts Warn of Higher Fares

Potential combination would face intense antitrust scrutiny and reshape global aviation industry

Apr. 16, 2026 at 2:40pm

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A minimalist, photorealistic studio still life featuring a set of polished metal airplane models arranged elegantly on a clean, monochromatic background, conceptually representing the abstract impact of airline mergers on consumers.Airline consolidation raises concerns about higher fares and reduced consumer choice in the skies.Los Angeles Today

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a potential merger between United and American Airlines to President Donald Trump in late February, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Experts say the likelihood of regulatory approval would be low due to significant antitrust concerns, as the combined carrier would hold dominant market shares in at least 12 major U.S. markets. Consumers could face higher fares and reduced choices if the merger goes through.

Why it matters

A United-American merger would 'erode the remaining impact of airline deregulation from almost 50 years ago,' according to experts. The deal would reshape the global aviation industry, potentially disrupting airline alliances and international joint ventures. Regulators would likely require substantial divestitures and structural changes to address antitrust issues, particularly in hub markets like Chicago and Washington, D.C.

The details

Experts overwhelmingly say the likelihood of regulatory approval would be low without major concessions. Analyst Matt Woodruff noted that the merger would trigger antitrust concerns across at least 12 major U.S. markets, with the most severe concentration at Chicago O'Hare International Airport where the combined carrier would hold an estimated 88% share of departures. Other problematic markets include Dallas, Houston, Charlotte, Denver, Newark, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. For consumers, experts warn that prices would likely rise while choices would shrink, as historical data shows fares dropped an estimated 17% when Spirit entered a route, while fares rose 30% when Spirit exited.

  • In late February 2026, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a potential merger between United and American Airlines to President Donald Trump.
  • The DOJ recently rejected the JetBlue-Spirit merger, even though the combined airline would have held just 9-10% of the domestic market.

The players

Scott Kirby

The CEO of United Airlines who reportedly pitched a potential merger between United and American Airlines to President Donald Trump.

Matt Woodruff

The head of aerospace & defense, and transportation at research firm CreditSights, who analyzed the antitrust concerns around a United-American merger.

Mark Dombroff

An aviation attorney at Fox Rothschild who said the deal would 'almost certainly draw heavy scrutiny from both the Department of Justice and the Department of Transportation.'

Alec Schultz

A trial lawyer at Hilgers PLLC who said such a merger would 'very likely' increase ticket prices over time and reduce consumer choice without significant divestitures.

Michael McCormick

The founder of Travel Again Advisory, a strategic M&A consultancy, who said passengers could face higher fares, fewer choices, reduced loyalty program value, and increased dominance by a single carrier at major airports.

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What they’re saying

“The likelihood of DOJ approval appears low without major concessions/commitments to modify networks.”

— Matt Woodruff, Head of aerospace & defense, and transportation at CreditSights

“The deal would 'almost certainly draw heavy scrutiny from both the Department of Justice and the Department of Transportation.'”

— Mark Dombroff, Aviation attorney at Fox Rothschild

“Such a merger would 'very likely' increase ticket prices over time and reduce consumer choice without significant divestitures.”

— Alec Schultz, Trial lawyer at Hilgers PLLC

“In markets where United and American currently compete head-to-head, consumers would almost certainly feel the difference. A deal like this would effectively erode the remaining impact of airline deregulation from almost 50 years ago.”

— Michael McCormick, Founder of Travel Again Advisory

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This potential merger highlights the ongoing consolidation in the airline industry and the challenges regulators face in balancing the interests of airlines, consumers, and the broader aviation ecosystem. While the deal could create operational efficiencies for the combined carrier, experts warn that passengers would likely bear the brunt of higher fares and reduced choices.