Oscars: The Case For and Against Every Acting Nominee

Variety's deep dive into the 2026 Oscars acting races, analyzing the strengths, weaknesses and winning chances of every lead and supporting nominee.

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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The acting races at this year's 98th Oscars ceremony are anything but straightforward. Across lead and supporting categories, the field is defined by generational clashes, overdue narratives, potential history-makers and a few spoilers who could upend what pundits and awards enthusiasts are expecting. Variety breaks down the pros and cons facing each contender because in a season this competitive, the smallest advantage could decide who hears their name called on Oscar night.

Why it matters

The Oscars are the most prestigious awards in the film industry, and the acting categories are always highly anticipated and closely watched. This year's nominees represent a diverse range of talent, from established veterans to rising stars, and their performances have the potential to make history. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each nominee can provide valuable insight into the dynamics of the race and the factors that may influence the final outcomes.

The details

The article delves into the specific merits and challenges of each acting nominee, covering factors such as their previous awards recognition, the critical reception of their performances, and the broader context of their films and careers. For example, it highlights Timothée Chalamet's charisma and volatility in 'Marty Supreme,' but notes that his young age could be a potential hurdle, while also discussing Leonardo DiCaprio's commanding screen presence in 'One Battle After Another' but the potential for the ensemble nature of the film to dilute the focus on his individual performance.

  • The 98th Oscars ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026.
  • Final Oscar voting will take place from February 26 to March 5, 2026.

The players

Timothée Chalamet

An American actor who has received three Oscar nominations, including for his roles in 'Call Me by Your Name' and 'A Complete Unknown.'

Leonardo DiCaprio

An American actor and producer who has won one Oscar and received eight acting nominations, including for his work in 'The Revenant.'

Ethan Hawke

An American actor, writer, and director who has received five Oscar nominations, with this being his first in the lead actor category.

Michael B. Jordan

An American actor who has received his first Oscar nomination for his performance in 'Sinners,' following previous acclaimed roles in films like 'Fruitvale Station' and 'Black Panther.'

Wagner Moura

A Brazilian actor who has received his first Oscar nomination for his performance in 'The Secret Agent,' marking a historic milestone as the first Brazilian nominee in the lead actor category.

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What they’re saying

“We have candidates like Timothée Chalamet and Jacob Elordi who are chasing youth records. Contenders like Emma Stone and Sean Penn who are eyeing rare third trophies. There are veterans like Delroy Lindo and Amy Madigan, who have long-awaited for recognitions throughout their careers.”

— Clayton Davis, Variety Film Awards Correspondent (Variety)

“The performance is big and plays to the back of the room. Some voters may not respond to his charm and wit.”

— Clayton Davis, Variety Film Awards Correspondent (Variety)

What’s next

Final Oscar voting will take place from February 26 to March 5, 2026, and the 98th Oscars ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026.

The takeaway

This year's Oscars acting races are marked by a diverse range of talent, from rising stars to veteran performers, each with their own unique strengths and challenges. The smallest advantages could prove decisive in determining the winners, making the competition particularly fierce and unpredictable.