California Exodus Transforms Arizona Politics

Migration from California fuels political shifts in neighboring states

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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As Californians flee the state in droves, the political landscape in neighboring Arizona is being transformed. While conservative-leaning Californians are moving to Arizona, their more progressive views on certain issues are also shaping Arizona's politics, making it a swing state. This migration has solidified California's progressive politics while amplifying Arizona's political volatility, with independent voters often deciding close races on issues like immigration, abortion rights, and election integrity.

Why it matters

The exodus of Californians, including many conservatives, to neighboring states like Arizona is having a significant impact on the political dynamics of those states. While the influx of conservative-leaning Californians has boosted Republican voter registration in Arizona, their more progressive views on certain issues are also influencing the state's politics, making it a battleground. This trend could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape across the country as Californians continue to migrate to other states.

The details

Over the past decade, Arizona has seen an influx of residents from California, with an average of about 173 Californians relocating daily, or more than 630,000 people from 2015 to 2025. Arizona is attractive due to its cheaper housing, lower state income tax rates, reduced traffic congestion, and dissatisfaction with California's progressive policies on issues like homelessness and crime. However, the migration has also intensified debates over urban sprawl, water usage, and increased demand on housing and infrastructure in Arizona. While many Republicans blame the California influx for their electoral losses in the state, the reality is more nuanced. Californians moving to Arizona since 2020 have shown a 20-point Republican registration edge, which contributed to Donald Trump's 2024 victory. But even conservative-leaning California migrants often bring more progressive views on issues like environmental or social policy, which has amplified Arizona's political volatility.

  • From 2010 to 2024, 10 million people left California.
  • Between 2020 and 2024, about five times as many Republicans have left California as have moved in.
  • From 2015 to 2025, more than 630,000 Californians relocated to Arizona.

The players

Gavin Newsom

The governor of California.

Karen Bass

The mayor of Los Angeles.

Katie Hobbs

The governor of Arizona, whose poor approval ratings reflect voter concerns over fiscal management and opposition to immigration enforcement.

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What’s next

The nation will learn over the next few election cycles how much the influx of Californians will continue to shape the politics of Arizona and other red-purple states across the country.

The takeaway

The exodus of Californians, including many conservatives, to neighboring states like Arizona is having a significant impact on the political dynamics of those states, with the more progressive views of some California migrants amplifying political volatility and making states like Arizona battlegrounds. This trend could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape across the country.