MLB Prospect Predictions Review: 2 Years Later, How Accurate Were We?

A look back at our bold 2024 predictions for each MLB team's top prospect in 2026

Apr. 11, 2026 at 3:48pm

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An extreme close-up of baseball players in motion, their forms dissolved into a vibrant, expressionist painting of neon colors and rapid brushstrokes, conveying the raw energy and emotion of the sport.An abstract, energetic illustration captures the unpredictable nature of prospect development in Major League Baseball.Angels Today

Two years ago, we made bold predictions about the top prospect for each MLB organization in 2026. Now it's time to revisit those forecasts and see how accurate we were. While some of our picks hit the mark, others missed the mark due to factors like prospects not yet entering pro ball, trades, and early MLB promotions. Overall, we scored a .400 batting average, an impressive feat, but one that hasn't been achieved since Ted Williams in 1941.

Why it matters

Prospect evaluation is a crucial part of building a successful MLB franchise, and getting these predictions right can give fans a glimpse into the future stars of their favorite teams. This review provides valuable insight into the challenges and uncertainties involved in projecting minor league talent, and highlights the importance of scouting, player development, and adaptability in an ever-changing landscape.

The details

Our initial predictions covered all 30 MLB teams, but 15 of those prospects either hadn't yet entered professional ball, changed teams via trade, or graduated to the majors ahead of schedule. Excluding those 15 teams, our success rate was 6 out of 15, a .400 batting average. Some notable misses included the Blue Jays' Arjun Nimmala, the Orioles' Enrique Bradfield Jr., and the Yankees' Roderick Arias, who didn't live up to expectations. On the other hand, we accurately predicted the top prospects for the Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants.

  • Our initial prospect predictions were made two years ago, in 2024.
  • This review and assessment of our predictions was published on April 11, 2026.

The players

Arjun Nimmala

A 2023 first-round pick for the Blue Jays who has shown improvements and has the potential for 25+ home runs, but was not the team's top prospect as we had predicted.

Enrique Bradfield Jr.

An elite defensive prospect who was our pick for the Orioles' top prospect, but was surpassed by Samuel Basallo.

Roderick Arias

A highly-touted international signing for the Yankees who didn't live up to expectations, with George Lombard Jr. now the team's top prospect.

Colt Emerson

A pure hitter and terrific shortstop prospect for the Mariners, who was accurately predicted as the team's top prospect.

Josue De Paula

A young hitter for the Dodgers who was our prediction and is living up to the hype, drawing comparisons to Yordan Alvarez.

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What’s next

As the 2026 MLB season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these top prospects continue to develop and whether any of our initial predictions end up being accurate in the long run.

The takeaway

Prospect evaluation is a challenging but crucial part of building a successful MLB franchise. This review highlights the unpredictability of minor league talent and the importance of scouting, player development, and adaptability in an ever-changing landscape. While we had some hits and misses in our 2024 predictions, the insights gained from this exercise can help inform future prospect assessments and the ongoing pursuit of identifying the next generation of MLB stars.