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Guernsey Today
By the People, for the People
South Bow proposes reviving parts of Keystone XL pipeline
The plan would increase Canada's crude exports to the U.S. but needs Trump approval and additional links to refining hubs.
Published on Mar. 2, 2026
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A proposal led by Canadian company South Bow aims to revive parts of the cancelled Keystone XL oil pipeline, which could increase Canada's crude exports to the U.S. by more than 12%. However, the plan would require approval from former U.S. President Donald Trump and the construction of additional pipeline links to U.S. refining hubs.
Why it matters
The revival of the Keystone XL pipeline project could provide a boost to Canada's oil exports and help meet U.S. demand for crude, but it would also likely face opposition from environmental and Indigenous groups that previously opposed the project.
The details
South Bow, which was set up by former Keystone XL proponent TC Energy in 2024, is considering reviving some of the pipeline that was already built in Alberta and has all necessary Canadian permits. The company's potential U.S. partner, Bridger Pipeline, has filed a proposal with Montana regulators to build a 645-mile pipeline from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming. However, Guernsey is not an end market for crude oil, so additional links would need to be built to transport oil to refining hubs such as Cushing, Oklahoma; Patoka, Illinois; and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
- In October 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney brought up the pipeline's revival in a conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump.
- Bridger Pipeline recently filed a proposal with Montana regulators to build the Montana-to-Guernsey pipeline segment.
The players
South Bow
A Canadian company that was set up by former Keystone XL proponent TC Energy in 2024 to take over its oil pipeline business.
Bridger Pipeline
A U.S. company that has filed a proposal with Montana regulators to build a 645-mile pipeline from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming.
Donald Trump
The former U.S. President whose approval would be required for the pipeline project to move forward.
Mark Carney
The Canadian Prime Minister who brought up the pipeline's revival in a conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Matthew Lewis
The founder of Plainview Energy Analytics, who provided analysis on the potential pipeline configuration.
What they’re saying
“The biggest challenge in this plan in a Guernsey-to-Steele City segment is gaining permits, and building new pipeline that would likely face environmental litigation tying up such a project up in court.”
— Matthew Lewis, Founder, Plainview Energy Analytics (Reuters)
“It brings up all the same issues. For those who wanted Keystone XL cancelled, this is all the same stuff.”
— Richard Masson, Former CEO, Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (Reuters)
What’s next
The proposal would require a presidential permit from the U.S. government to cross the border, and it remains unclear if the current or future administration would approve the project.
The takeaway
The revival of the Keystone XL pipeline project faces significant political and regulatory hurdles, as well as potential opposition from environmental and Indigenous groups, despite the potential benefits of increased crude oil exports from Canada to the U.S.
