Homicide Rates Dropping Across U.S.

Decline in gun violence appears to be a key factor, but experts cite multiple causes

Apr. 12, 2026 at 1:05pm

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An extreme close-up photograph of a spent bullet casing on a pitch-black background, lit by a harsh, direct camera flash, conceptually representing the ongoing challenge of gun violence despite declining homicide rates.As homicide rates decline nationwide, the stark reality of gun violence remains a pressing concern for policymakers and communities.Casper Today

The United States is experiencing one of the most significant drops in homicide rates in over a century, with 2025 having one of the lowest national homicide rates since records began in 1900. Researchers point to a convergence of public safety strategies and broader social shifts, including the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act and well-resourced local community violence intervention programs, as potential drivers of this decline.

Why it matters

The drop in homicide rates, especially gun-related murders, is a welcome trend that could have far-reaching implications for public safety and community well-being. However, experts caution that the progress is fragile and may be undermined if prevention resources and policies are scaled back.

The details

The decline in homicide rates appears to be driven by a combination of factors, including the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which expanded background checks for buyers under 21, created new offenses for illegal gun trafficking, and funded community violence intervention (CVI) programs. Experts also note that well-resourced local CVI programs, which work with at-risk residents to prevent retaliation and shootings, could be contributing to the decline.

  • In 2025, the U.S. experienced one of the lowest national homicide rates since records began in 1900.
  • The 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act was passed in the wake of high-profile mass shootings.

The players

Daniel Webster

A criminologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions.

James Alan Fox

A criminologist at Northeastern University who has studied homicide patterns for decades.

Michael Siegel

A professor of public health at Boston University.

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What they’re saying

“I think what we've seen recently is more than just one law or policy. It's layers of investment — from local nonprofits to state laws to federal resources — trying to address the underlying conditions of violence.”

— Daniel Webster, Criminologist

“We can't assume that trends will stay downward if we remove the supports that helped get us here. Data suggests that proactive policies, such as expanded background checks and targeted prevention programs, can reduce lethal violence without impinging on lawful ownership.”

— James Alan Fox, Criminologist

“Fewer murders is welcome news wherever they occur. But the work isn't finished — especially when disparities persist and prevention resources are pulled back.”

— Michael Siegel, Professor of Public Health

What’s next

Policymakers on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that public safety remains a top concern for voters, and surveys show broad public support for background checks and violence prevention measures, even among gun owners. The future trajectory of homicide rates may depend on how local, state, and federal leaders navigate the complex terrain of crime prevention in the coming years.

The takeaway

The decline in homicide rates, especially gun-related murders, is a positive trend that could have far-reaching implications for public safety and community well-being. However, experts caution that this progress is fragile and may be undermined if prevention resources and policies are scaled back, underscoring the need for sustained, multifaceted efforts to address the underlying conditions of violence.