Experts Warn of Shipping Delays and Rising Costs as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz could force ships to take lengthy detours, leading to higher fuel expenses and freight rates.

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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Experts in global supply chain management and national security are warning of significant disruptions to global shipping and trade as tensions escalate between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, is forcing ships to take lengthy detours around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and driving up fuel costs and freight rates. Analysts say consumers in the U.S. and worldwide will likely feel the impact of these supply chain disruptions sooner rather than later, with rising oil and gas prices already being observed.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global trade route, with an estimated 20% of the world's oil supply passing through the waterway. Its closure could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy, consumer goods, and other critical commodities. This comes at a time when supply chains are already strained from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, making the potential impact even more severe.

The details

According to experts, the directive from Iran's Revolutionary Guard to close the Strait of Hormuz came in response to military strikes on the country by joint U.S. and Israeli forces. This has forced cargo ships and oil tankers that were scheduled to pass through the strait to either wait it out or take the lengthy detour around the Cape of Good Hope, which can add up to two weeks to their transit times. The additional distance and time means more fuel expended, higher freight rates, and reduced shipping capacity, all of which will likely be passed on to consumers.

  • On March 3, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to military strikes by the U.S. and Israel.
  • As of March 5, 2026, over 3,200 ships were sitting idle inside the Persian Gulf, unable to transit the closed strait.

The players

John Saldanha

A professor at West Virginia University's John Chambers College of Business and Economics, Saldanha is an expert in global supply chain management. He previously worked as a Class 2 deck officer in the British Merchant Marine, serving on Indian red flag ships and later for Norwegian, Italian, and U.S. shipping companies in the region.

David Abruzzino

A former CIA officer, Abruzzino teaches classes in national security intelligence at Fairmont State University.

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What they’re saying

“And I've been on the phone a lot, talking to my colleagues.”

— John Saldanha, Professor (The Dominion Post)

“Maritime insurance companies won't cover ships in a war zone.”

— David Abruzzino, Former CIA Officer (The Dominion Post)

What’s next

Analysts say the situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation or de-escalation between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The impact on global shipping and trade will likely continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months, with consumers potentially feeling the effects through higher prices for a range of goods.

The takeaway

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the outsized influence that geopolitical conflicts can have on the movement of goods around the world. This incident serves as a wake-up call for businesses and policymakers to re-evaluate the resilience of international trade networks and explore strategies to mitigate the risks of such disruptions in the future.