Gambling Stocks Slump as Prediction Markets Steal Super Bowl Bets

DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment shares plunge as new prediction market platforms like Kalshi attract bettors away from traditional sportsbooks.

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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The Super Bowl, traditionally a highlight for gambling companies, has seen a cloud descend over the industry this year as prediction markets like Kalshi have emerged as a new way for bettors to wager on the big game, bypassing state-level gambling regulations that have restricted the spread of older gambling apps. Shares of major gambling firms like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have plunged as prediction markets steal a growing share of Super Bowl bets.

Why it matters

The rise of prediction markets poses a major threat to the business models of established gambling companies that have ridden a wave of growth in sports betting since the Supreme Court legalized it in 2018. Prediction markets offer a new, less-regulated avenue for bettors, and are attracting a significant portion of Super Bowl wagers that would have traditionally gone to sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel.

The details

Prediction market startup Kalshi has emerged as a leading platform for Super Bowl betting, offering wagers on everything from the length of the halftime show to the likelihood of Jeff Bezos attending the game. Kalshi was able to offer these bets after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees the platform, indicated that sports-related event contracts were permissible. This has allowed Kalshi to attract a large share of Super Bowl bets, with analysts estimating it will account for $630 million in wagers, or 80% of the year-over-year growth in Super Bowl betting. Traditional sportsbooks are expected to still see record Super Bowl betting handles, but prediction markets are eating into their market share.

  • Kalshi first offered Super Bowl wagers in early 2025.
  • The CFTC did not intervene to stop Kalshi's sports betting contracts.

The players

Kalshi

A leading US prediction market startup that has emerged as a major platform for Super Bowl betting, offering wagers on a wide range of game-related events.

DraftKings

A major US online gambling company whose stock has plunged more than 60% from its all-time high as prediction markets have stolen market share.

Flutter Entertainment

The parent company of FanDuel, one of the most popular US gambling apps, whose stock has been on an eight-week skid amid the rise of prediction markets.

Michael Selig

The new chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who has indicated he will allow sports-related event contracts on prediction markets to move forward.

Adam Greenblatt

The CEO of BetMGM, who said the company has not seen any impact from prediction markets and that they are primarily gaining ground in states where traditional online gambling is not allowed.

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What they’re saying

“A big piece of why we think Super Bowl handle will be down is that prediction markets are taking a bite out of that.”

— Jordan Bender, Senior Equity Analyst, Citizens (Fortune)

“Kalshi's growth is fueled by ad campaigns, earned media, social virality and, above all, superior depth, breadth, and distribution compared to traditional online sportsbooks.”

— Edwin Dorsey, Analyst (Substack)

“We can't see any impact that we can identify that is attributable to prediction markets.”

— Adam Greenblatt, CEO, BetMGM (Fortune)

What’s next

Several industry analysts expect the existing US sportsbooks to still take in a record Super Bowl haul this year, but prediction markets are expected to attract a significant portion of the bets. The battle between traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets is likely to continue, with legal challenges and regulatory battles ahead.

The takeaway

The rise of prediction markets like Kalshi poses a major threat to the business models of established gambling companies, as these new platforms offer bettors a less-regulated avenue to wager on a wide range of Super Bowl-related events. This shift is already impacting the bottom lines of major players like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, highlighting the need for these companies to adapt to the changing landscape of sports betting.