Gartner's Prediction of Sub-$500 PC Demise by 2028 Unlikely to Materialize

Analyst firm's forecast contradicts market realities and industry trends, expert argues

Mar. 3, 2026 at 4:03pm

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Gartner, the prominent analyst firm, has predicted that the sub-$500 PC market will disappear by 2028. However, the author of this article strongly disagrees, arguing that this forecast is unlikely to materialize. The article cites several reasons why the sub-$500 PC market will continue to thrive, including the rise of Chinese memory chip manufacturers, improved memory management in operating systems, and the ongoing relevance of entry-level computing devices.

Why it matters

Gartner's prediction, if accurate, would have significant implications for the PC industry and consumer access to affordable computing. However, the author's counterarguments suggest that the sub-$500 PC market remains a crucial and resilient segment, with important implications for technology affordability and accessibility.

The details

The article outlines several key factors that challenge Gartner's prediction. First, it notes that the sub-$500 PC market accounts for about a third of the total addressable market, making it a significant and entrenched segment. Second, it suggests that while memory and storage costs may rise, other PC components are unlikely to see the same level of price increases, keeping entry-level devices affordable. The article also draws parallels to the smartphone market, where low-cost devices continue to thrive despite rising component costs. Additionally, the author believes that Chinese memory chip manufacturers will step in to fill the gaps left by traditional players, providing cost-effective alternatives. Finally, the article suggests that operating system improvements, such as better memory management, could help mitigate the impact of rising component prices on entry-level PCs.

  • In November 2025, memory prices nearly quadrupled.
  • Gartner's prediction is that the sub-$500 PC market will disappear by December 31, 2028.

The players

Gartner

An American research and advisory firm that provides information technology-related insight for IT and other business leaders.

Ranjit Atwal

A senior director analyst at Gartner who made the prediction about the sub-$500 PC market disappearing by 2028.

YMTC

A Chinese memory chip manufacturer that the author expects to ramp up production to fill gaps left by traditional players.

CXMT

Another Chinese memory chip manufacturer that the author expects to increase production to address the sub-$500 PC market.

Microsoft

The software company that develops the Windows operating system, which the author believes could improve memory management to support entry-level PCs.

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What they’re saying

“I bet some serious NFT* money that this won't materialize as this price bracket accounts for about a third of the total addressable market.”

— Desire Athow, Author

“Already, there are reports Apple and others will use products from the aforementioned Chinese companies and I predict that Chinese NAND and memory chips will become common in computers and laptops produced in mainland China.”

— Desire Athow, Author

What’s next

The author suggests that the need for affordable computing devices will drive innovations in memory management and the emergence of cost-effective memory chip alternatives from Chinese manufacturers, which could help sustain the sub-$500 PC market beyond Gartner's predicted timeline.

The takeaway

Gartner's forecast of the sub-$500 PC market's demise by 2028 appears to be at odds with market realities and industry trends, as the author presents a compelling case for why this segment will continue to thrive in the coming years, driven by technological advancements and the persistent demand for affordable computing solutions.