El Niño Watch Issued, Raising Drought Concerns for Western Washington

Meteorologists warn of potential 'super El Niño' forming by fall, bringing warmer temps and less precipitation to the Pacific Northwest.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 12:20pm

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The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch, indicating a 62% chance that El Niño conditions could develop by fall 2026. If an El Niño does form, there is a one-in-three chance it could be a 'strong' event, which typically brings warmer and drier weather to the Pacific Northwest, exacerbating existing drought conditions.

Why it matters

El Niño events can have significant impacts on weather patterns and water resources in the Pacific Northwest. With the region already experiencing drought, an El Niño could further reduce snowpack, lower spring runoff, and increase the risk of wildfires in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

The details

According to Deputy State Climatologist Karin Bumbaco, El Niño conditions typically bring warmer than average temperatures and below-normal precipitation to the entire Pacific Northwest during the fall and winter seasons. This could mean a smaller snowpack, less spring runoff, and a greater chance of drought and wildfires in the region.

  • On March 16, 2026, the Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch.
  • The Climate Prediction Center said there is a 62% chance that El Niño conditions could form by fall 2026.
  • There is a 1-in-3 chance that the El Niño event could be 'strong' during October-December 2026.

The players

Climate Prediction Center

A division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that monitors and predicts climate patterns.

Karin Bumbaco

The Deputy State Climatologist for Washington, who provided analysis on the potential impacts of an El Niño event in the Pacific Northwest.

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What they’re saying

“If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026.”

— Climate Prediction Center

“That's not great news, considering that we already have drought conditions. We're still in a La Niña, and we do not have the snowpack that we would like to see in spring.”

— Karin Bumbaco, Deputy State Climatologist

What’s next

The Climate Prediction Center will continue to monitor the development of El Niño conditions and provide updates on the potential strength and impacts as the fall season approaches.

The takeaway

The prospect of an El Niño event forming by fall 2026 raises serious concerns for the Pacific Northwest, which is already grappling with drought conditions. Water resource managers and emergency planners will need to closely track the situation and prepare for the potential of warmer, drier weather and increased wildfire risk in the coming year.