Lake Champlain's Freezing Patterns Shift Over Decades

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Lake Champlain in Vermont has seen a dramatic shift in its freezing patterns over the past several decades. Before the 1940s, the lake froze completely almost every winter. Between the 1940s and 1970s, it still froze more often than not. However, since the 1970s, a complete freeze has become increasingly rare, with the 2020s not seeing a single winter where the lake froze solid.

Why it matters

The decreasing frequency of Lake Champlain freezing completely is a sign of the broader climate changes occurring in the region. As temperatures warm, the lake is less likely to freeze over, which can impact local ecosystems, transportation, and recreational activities that have historically relied on the frozen lake.

The details

Despite the overall trend, this winter is shaping up to be a likely candidate for a complete freeze. December brought well-below-average temperatures, and the arctic air in place for the remainder of January could allow the lake to freeze solid. Typically, when the lake does freeze, it happens after January, so the timing could still work in favor of a full freeze this year.

• Before the 1940s, Lake Champlain froze completely almost every winter.
• Between the 1940s and 1970s, the lake still froze more often than not.
• Since the 1970s, a complete freeze has become increasingly rare.
• The 2020s have not yet seen the lake freeze solid in a single winter.

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to closely monitor the expansion of ice on Lake Champlain and provide updates on whether the lake is likely to freeze solid this winter.