How Rising Gas Prices Could Impact Trump's Approval Ratings

A look at historical trends and the potential political fallout of $4-per-gallon gas.

Mar. 31, 2026 at 11:35am

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As the war in Iran pushes gas prices above $4 per gallon nationwide, Republicans are closely watching to see if the price spike will hurt President Trump's approval ratings and dim the prospects of some GOP candidates in the upcoming midterm elections. While the link between gas prices and presidential approval has weakened in recent years due to increased political polarization, the rapid rise in prices could still have an impact.

Why it matters

Gas prices have historically been a key factor in driving shifts in public attitudes toward the president. Spikes in gas prices have often led to declines in presidential approval ratings, as voters feel the financial pinch at the pump. However, the relationship has become less pronounced in recent years as the electorate has grown more polarized, with presidents enjoying more unified support from their own party.

The details

In 1979, soaring gas prices amid the energy crisis contributed to a plunge in President Jimmy Carter's approval ratings to around 30%. Conversely, lower gas prices through the 1980s were closely associated with higher approval ratings for President Ronald Reagan. More recently, in the summer of 2008, a surge in gas prices to the equivalent of $6 per gallon (when adjusted for inflation) coincided with a steep decline in President George W. Bush's approval ratings.

  • The national average gas price hit $4.02 per gallon on March 31, 2026, climbing above the $4 mark for the first time since August 2022.
  • In some states, the average price at the pump is more than $5 per gallon, and in some counties it is more than $6.

The players

President Donald Trump

The current President of the United States, whose approval ratings are being closely watched as gas prices spike.

President Jimmy Carter

The 39th President of the United States, whose approval ratings plummeted during the 1979 energy crisis when gas prices soared to the equivalent of $5 per gallon.

President Ronald Reagan

The 40th President of the United States, whose approval ratings were closely associated with lower gas prices through the 1980s.

President George W. Bush

The 43rd President of the United States, whose approval ratings steeply declined in the summer of 2008 as gas prices surged to the equivalent of $6 per gallon.

Kyle Kondik

A political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics who has studied the weakening link between gas prices and approval ratings in recent years.

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What they’re saying

“Presidential approval ratings are far more stable in general than they used to be. You don't see big swings anymore.”

— Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst, University of Virginia Center for Politics

“It suggests that even price pressures at the pump may have limited impacts on the president's overall standing.”

— Alec Tyson, Pollster, Ipsos public affairs

What’s next

As the war in Iran continues, polls will continue to monitor public sentiment toward the military actions and their impact on the president's approval ratings.

The takeaway

While the link between gas prices and presidential approval has weakened in recent years, the rapid spike in prices to over $4 per gallon could still have a significant impact on President Trump's standing, especially if it is coupled with continued public disapproval of the military conflict in Iran.