March Madness Upsets Decline as Cinderella Stories Fade

NIL deals give power conference schools a financial advantage over mid-majors

Mar. 28, 2026 at 1:20pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The days of true Cinderella stories in March Madness may be coming to an end. With the rise of NIL deals, power conference schools are able to outspend smaller mid-major programs, making it increasingly difficult for lesser-known teams to pull off deep tournament runs. While upsets still happen, the Sweet 16 and beyond have been dominated by major conference teams in recent years, raising questions about the future of Cinderella in college basketball's biggest event.

Why it matters

The decline of Cinderella stories in March Madness is a significant shift in the landscape of college basketball. These underdog runs have long been a beloved part of the tournament, capturing the imagination of fans and highlighting the unpredictability of the event. However, the financial advantages enjoyed by power conference schools due to NIL deals threaten to make the tournament more predictable, potentially diminishing the excitement and appeal of March Madness.

The details

The impact of NIL deals has been felt across college basketball, with top recruits and players gravitating towards programs that can offer the most lucrative endorsement opportunities. This has made it increasingly difficult for mid-major schools to retain their best talent, as larger schools can easily outbid them. As a result, the Sweet 16 and beyond have been dominated by power conference teams in recent years, with no mid-major schools making it past the opening weekend of the tournament.

  • Since the current 64-team format started in 1985, at least one mid-major school made the Sweet 16 every year, until the past two editions of the tournament.
  • In 2023 and 2024, all the Sweet 16 teams came from power conferences, with no mid-majors surviving the first weekend.

The players

Oscar Cluff

A rising star on the South Dakota State basketball team, the type of player that mid-major schools have traditionally relied on to make Cinderella runs in March Madness.

Rick Pitino

The head coach of St. John's, who has expressed concern about the impact of NIL deals on roster turnover and the ability of mid-major schools to retain their top players.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I may be looking at three guys returning next year and I have got to bring in 10. They all become free agents. I was at Iona...every good player in the MAC was poached by another school. It's just not something I like.”

— Rick Pitino, Head Coach, St. John's

What’s next

It remains to be seen whether mid-major schools can adapt to the new financial realities of college basketball and find ways to remain competitive in the NIL era. The 2024 and 2025 NCAA Tournaments will provide further insight into the long-term impact of these changes on the tournament's Cinderella stories.

The takeaway

The decline of Cinderella stories in March Madness is a concerning trend for the future of the tournament. The financial advantages enjoyed by power conference schools due to NIL deals have made it increasingly difficult for mid-major programs to retain their top talent and pull off the kind of unexpected tournament runs that have captivated fans for decades. While upsets still happen, the lack of true Cinderella teams reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond threatens to make the tournament more predictable and less exciting for casual fans.