Lake Powell Faces Historic Low as Warm Winter Hits Water Supply

Flaming Gorge Reservoir may be tapped to prop up declining water levels at Lake Powell

Mar. 13, 2026 at 10:55pm

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After two decades of drought and an exceptionally warm winter, water levels at Lake Powell are projected to drop below the 'power pool' elevation of 3,490 feet by December, preventing hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam. The Bureau of Reclamation may turn to releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to help maintain Powell's water levels, but experts warn that Flaming Gorge is a 'finite resource' that cannot permanently solve the problem.

Why it matters

Lake Powell's declining water levels threaten the hydroelectric power it generates, which provides electricity to Utah and six other states. The potential loss of this power source raises concerns about the region's energy security and reliability. Additionally, the shrinking of Lake Powell could have broader environmental and economic impacts on the surrounding communities that rely on the reservoir for recreation and water supply.

The details

Utah just experienced its warmest winter on record, with Salt Lake City breaking its previous maximum average winter temperature by 2 degrees Fahrenheit. This led to poor snowpack and reduced water flows into Lake Powell. The Bureau of Reclamation's latest forecast shows the lake dropping below the 'power pool' elevation by December, which would prevent water from flowing through the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam. To prop up Powell, the Bureau may draw water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which has the best water outlook in the basin at 64% of normal. However, experts warn that Flaming Gorge is a 'finite resource' that cannot indefinitely sustain releases to maintain Powell's water levels.

  • Utah just wrapped up its warmest winter on record.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation's latest most probable forecast shows Lake Powell sinking below 'power pool' (3,490 feet) by December.
  • The Bureau's latest minimum probable forecast shows the lake dropping below 3,490 feet by the end of August.

The players

Gene Shawcroft

Utah's Colorado River negotiator.

Wayne Pullan

Upper Colorado regional director for the Bureau of Reclamation.

Amy Haas

Director of the Colorado River Authority of Utah.

Jack Schmidt

Director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University.

Flaming Gorge Reservoir

A reservoir that straddles the border of Utah and Wyoming, which has the best water outlook in the Colorado River Basin at 64% of normal.

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What they’re saying

“Right now the hydrology that we have in front of us puts us in a very, very precarious situation.”

— Gene Shawcroft, Utah's Colorado River negotiator (waterdesk.org)

“It's safe for us to assume that, unless Mother Nature is uncharacteristically generous, that Lake Powell elevations are going to fluctuate at elevations that we're not comfortable with.”

— Wayne Pullan, Upper Colorado regional director for the Bureau of Reclamation (waterdesk.org)

“Flaming Gorge is a finite resource. You may get two or three or four major releases out of Flaming Gorge before you've brought that reservoir down to the mud, so to speak.”

— Amy Haas, Director of the Colorado River Authority of Utah (waterdesk.org)

“This summer might be a glimpse into what our future world is going to be, and that's going to be really limited water use.”

— Jack Schmidt, Director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University (waterdesk.org)

What’s next

Utah and the other states in the Upper Colorado River Basin have sent a letter to the Bureau of Reclamation inviting them to form a plan for releases from Flaming Gorge and other upper reservoirs to help prop up Lake Powell. The releases would likely start on May 1 and continue until April 30 of next year, with a total water release of around 500,000 acre-feet.

The takeaway

The declining water levels at Lake Powell highlight the growing water scarcity challenges facing the Colorado River Basin. While tapping into Flaming Gorge Reservoir may provide a short-term solution, experts warn that it is a finite resource that cannot permanently solve the problem. This crisis underscores the need for long-term, comprehensive water management strategies to ensure the region's water security and sustainability.