Old Farmer's Almanac Misses Mark on Utah Winter Predictions

Warmer temperatures but drier conditions so far this winter, contrary to the Almanac's forecast.

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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This winter's weather predictions in Utah have gone awry, with Salt Lake City facing dryness instead of the snow forecasted by the Old Farmer's Almanac. While temperatures have been milder than normal as predicted, precipitation and snowfall have been below average so far, contrary to the Almanac's outlook. The Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast was closer to the actual conditions seen in the region.

Why it matters

The Old Farmer's Almanac is a widely referenced source for long-range weather forecasts, so its inaccurate predictions for the Intermountain West this winter raise questions about the reliability of its methods and the ability to accurately forecast seasonal weather patterns months in advance.

The details

As of early February 2026, actual winter conditions in much of the Intermountain West have diverged notably from the Almanac's forecast. While the prediction of milder-than-normal temperatures has proven accurate, the forecast for slightly above-normal precipitation and mixed snowfall has not materialized. Salt Lake City saw virtually no measurable snow in January, a rarity for the region, and southern Utah has also seen minimal snowfall. In contrast, the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures and equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation has been more in line with the actual weather patterns observed so far this winter.

  • Groundhog Day 2026 has passed.
  • As of early February 2026, the winter weather conditions have diverged from the Old Farmer's Almanac predictions.

The players

Old Farmer's Almanac

A long-running publication that provides long-range weather forecasts and predictions.

Climate Prediction Center

A division of the National Weather Service that issues seasonal weather outlooks and forecasts.

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What they’re saying

“I should go into weather forecasting, because I can be wrong as much as anyone else.”

— Dr. T, Author (sportsradio977.com)

What’s next

There is still more than half of winter remaining, so there is still opportunity for the weather patterns to shift and the precipitation to increase in the coming months. The Old Farmer's Almanac has also issued its spring 2026 forecast, predicting warm and dry conditions for Utah, which will be watched closely to see if it proves more accurate than the winter outlook.

The takeaway

This winter's weather in Utah has highlighted the challenges in accurately forecasting long-range seasonal patterns, even for well-established sources like the Old Farmer's Almanac. It underscores the need for continued improvements in weather modeling and the limitations in predicting complex atmospheric conditions months in advance.