Choppy week of fresh data ends with optimism

Markets closed Monday for President's Day

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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It was a choppy week across all markets with concerns about the heated AI trade, rising geopolitical tensions, and volatile US domestic politics. However, the January jobs report beat expectations, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. The January CPI data also showed progress in the fight against higher inflation, declining to 2.4%. The recent rally in the US dollar index stalled, and the weaker US dollar supported US corn and wheat exports as well as money flows back into commodities.

Why it matters

The economic data and market movements this week provide insights into the overall health of the US economy, the impact of AI on employment, the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation, and the dynamics of the commodity markets, particularly wheat and soybeans, which are important for the agricultural sector.

The details

The January jobs report showed the US added 130,000 jobs, beating expectations of 55,000, and dropping the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Healthcare led job creation with 82,000 new positions. However, there are concerns that AI could lead to fewer employees and increased productivity. The January CPI data showed inflation declined to 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December, providing the Federal Reserve more options to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The weaker US dollar supported US corn and wheat exports, as well as money flows back into commodities. Rains in the Southern Plains stalled the short-covering wheat rally, while the Brazilian soybean crop continues to increase, improving the economics for soybeans.

  • The January jobs report was delayed from last Friday.
  • The January CPI data was released on Friday morning.
  • US markets are closed on Monday for President's Day.
  • Grain markets will reopen on Monday evening at 7 PM CDT.

The players

Trump Administration

The Trump Administration has helped lead the charge in softer inflation through a calculated and intentional move to lower energy prices.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is working to bring US inflation down to the 2.0% target.

Presidents' Trump and Xi

The presidents have supposedly agreed to an extended trade truce that could see Beijing buy more US soybeans.

USDA

The USDA confirmed an increase in the Brazilian soybean crop to 180.0 million metric tons and made changes to US and global corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks in its monthly reports.

Brady Sidwell

A Series 3 Licensed Commodity Futures Broker and Principal of Sidwell Strategies.

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What they’re saying

“If you're selling cattle at these historic highs, be sure to spend some of that on your partner this weekend or you might need to find a new gate opener…”

— Brady Sidwell, Commodity Futures Broker and Principal (Barchart)

“If you're buying feeders in today's market environment, $270 is needed for fed cattle to make it work.”

— Brady Sidwell, Commodity Futures Broker and Principal (Barchart)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.